Forum > View Topic
by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 20, 2010 5:00
Comments: 30765
Forum Topic:

EUR

Discuss EUR in this thread
 
1...732733734735736737738739740741742743744745746...3077
Sir Ignore
United States
Posts: 3068
12 years ago
Jan 14, 2012 13:10
good morning landluverz ...

Dave, you soundin like a celebrity guru now.....

that 'one step at a time' notion = 1hr chartz bro..

favor no bounce 4 hr to daily reckonings..breaking lower channels..

monthly needs a good excuse now to avoid 1.1600 !!

but only 1 hr tradable at moment for me...

and btw I feed starving cats at mi back door...goat stew..
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Jan 14, 2012 12:34
rode EU up to my "corrective" target yesterday for 120 pip gain and then all the way down to new low denoted by count. Of course the downgrades etc helped to speed the action. Now expecting the daily channel support coinciding with 78.6% ret to play next, or even a bit lower as support now a little lower than fib level. So spike through fib level to support and bounce would be ideal scenario. Higher timeframe projections are available at request but one step at a time is prudent. The count predicted several months ago is right on track and I agree with cat we shall see near parity levels or below in the coming weeks/months.

As Ashraf repeatedly points out the eu correlation with SPX is so weak now as to be useless but I feel that NYSE stock indices are being held up on fumes by that mysterous hand. Internals have been pathetic for several weeks now, not just ES volume. So kinda expecting the majors to fall off the cliff any time soon but who knows what might happen in election year. Surprisingly encouraging eco stats coming out of the US recently mask the underlying dismal fundamentals and it will be interesting to see any seasonal adjustments to the jobs numbers next month. gt to all.
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
Jan 14, 2012 7:37
It is advisable to trade EUR vs AUD CAD NZD. Not so clear va USD and JPY.
Because the EUR weakness is mostly due to the ECB acting like FED and BOJ:
massive monetization of Ezone sov bonds. Thus EUR USD and to a lesser extend JPY are basically scrap. Only liquidity no real capital. Of course in the longer term EURUSD parity will
come.
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
12 years ago
Jan 13, 2012 21:47
Swigert: 'Okay, Houston, we've had a problem here.'
Houston: 'This is Houston. Say again please.'
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
12 years ago
Jan 13, 2012 21:26
a hint to hedge..

"CME lowers Australian and Canadian Dollars, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc margins."

aussie rebounds smartly.. safe AAA's at premium!?..
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
12 years ago
Jan 13, 2012 21:17
u2 Sir.. best stay out/hedged o/w as monday might get interesting.. maybe similar to what happened after US was downgraded.. so safety is desired..

"France has three short-maturity bond auctions scheduled for Monday.."
Sir Ignore
United States
Posts: 3068
12 years ago
Jan 13, 2012 20:41
keeping 2667 long, almost got my stop, but could not find me in the mist, too good...

no vig over w/e

have a good weekend cat and the skeleton crew....

stay positive...
cat0nip
Frankfurt, Germany
Posts: 1632
12 years ago
Jan 13, 2012 19:58
downgrades S&P confirmed....Greece debt haircut negotiations interrupted....reactions in USDx and EURx now stalled. I take the risk and keep the long pos, and the USDCHF long hedge
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
12 years ago
Jan 13, 2012 16:23
LATEST RATING TABLES FOR EUROZONE
================================

COUNTRY S&P Fitch Moody's

Portugal BBB-(cr neg) BB+(neg) Ba2 (neg)

Ireland BBB+(cr neg) BBB+ (RWN) Ba1 (neg)

Italy A (cr neg) A+ (RWN) A2 (neg)

Greece CC (neg) CCC (---) Ca (develp)

Spain AA- (cr neg) AA- (RWN) A1 (neg)

Austria AAA (cr neg) AAA (stb) Aaa (stb)

Belgium AA (cr neg) AA+ (RWN) Aa3 (neg)

Finland AAA (cr neg) AAA (stb) Aaa (stb)

Germany AAA (cr neg) AAA (stb) Aaa (stb)

France AAA (cr neg) AAA (neg) Aaa (stb)

Netherlands AAA (cr neg) AAA (stb) Aaa (stb)

Source: S&P, Moody's, Fitch, MNI.


Ashraf
Sir Ignore
United States
Posts: 3068
12 years ago
Jan 13, 2012 16:18
2667 long stop 2647 tp 2772..
gl

surf time...wish u were here tz...make it happen....
Report Reply
1...732733734735736737738739740741742743744745746...3077