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by Ashraf Laidi
Posted: Feb 22, 2010 5:00
Comments: 8935
Forum Topic:

Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)

Discuss Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices)
 
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DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
May 14, 2011 22:10
jacek, I remember you mentioning that. I been perma bear stocks for many years but seem to spend most my life in long trades :-) We could talk about GS and PPT if you like :-))) Greenspan set it all up in 03 :-)
DaveO
UK
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
May 14, 2011 21:51
Hey it took me 20 mins to find Ashraf's SPX comments in the archives. Twas on the 5th May in the Premier section. Naturally I arrived there last :-(

He reckoned 2% to 3% retracement which he calculated as 1320 nominal target. Actually 1320 would be 3.65% from the 1370 high on the 3rd May whereas 2% is 1352 and 3% is 1329.

SPX made its first low on the 5th May at 1329. Then moved up to 1354 high on the 10th May and since come down to closing price of 1338 on 13th May.

As I said below the pattern suggests will make a low of 1318.07 to 1306.62 area being 100% sym and 127.2% sym ext respectively, the former being just a twitch below the 55DMA and the latter being a twitch below the 100DMA. Pattern as per daily chart and 60 min chart.

If true, the move lower will be violating EW rules for previous pattern up from the 1249 low on the 17th March which means I would be on alert for a very much lower move altogether. From this perspective the previous low made at 1329 needs to hold for Ashraf's short term bullish bias to hold good. Also the trend support line from the 17th march low is a now a little above the 1329 level.

About 600 area would be true value based upon US fundies imo :-) perhaps a lot lower if Congress fail to cap their debt very soon indeed.
bhglitter123
dubai, United Arab Emirates
Posts: 36
13 years ago
May 14, 2011 20:13
hi dave.. whats your outlook on gold and silver for monday ?
jacek
Melbourne, Australia
Posts: 2579
13 years ago
May 14, 2011 7:25
Hi Dave, that daily shooting star on 2nd May looked ominous.. now weekly looks it as well.. had a short indexes/commodities and long DX bias ever since (might have even called myself a prophet here in early May.. not as modest as you are:-).. 1300 test is pretty much given even if getting there might be somewhat erratic..
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
May 13, 2011 20:58
SPX assumes 1329 low is taken, otherwise the the trend support from march low is still holding.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
May 13, 2011 20:51
the copper position is a possible truncation for reaching the level last posted at 379.68. Above 408.40 would alert.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
May 13, 2011 20:48
Ashraf, without hunting out your SPX stance I am thinking daily chart pattern is looking like a visit to 1318/1306 area. I will check later to see how that fits your bullish bias down the road.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
May 12, 2011 12:11
copper short still on track for next target at c.379.68 potential reversal from percieved ABC simple correction.
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
May 12, 2011 12:03
yea Crude worked a treat. Expecting new lows below 94.60
DaveO
N.Cornwall, UK
Posts: 5733
13 years ago
May 12, 2011 11:59
gold count looking good and new low below 1462 will validate. Should price reverse above 1507.3 the current count would be invalidated. Silver again racing ahead and already made new low.
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