Forum - Gold, Oil & Indices (Equity & Bond Indices) (Topic)

Ashraf Laidi

London, UK

Posts: 0

11 years ago

Jan 8, 2013 12:20

This analysis you will not find elsewhere (unless they copied it like it happened a few times alrdy)

Added a 4-year comparative performance charting of 11 currencies, 7 equity indices, & 14 commodities for our Premium Insights members.

new representation of cross-market performances, highlighting the existing and shifting relationships underpinning currencies, equities and commodities from 2009 to 2012.

Which was the best performing currency in 2012 out of a group of 11 currencies?

How to figure that out without making several cross-FX comparisons?

Can we draw a conclusion from Aussie’s performance relative to CAD and JPY?

how did copper fare against gold and crude? Coffee, cotton and corn are also included, as well as FTSE-100, S&P500 and the Nikkei-225.

http://ashraflaidi.com/forex-news/comparative-intermarket-performances-from-2009-to-2012

Ashraf

DaveO

N.Cornwall, UK

Posts: 5733

11 years ago

Jan 8, 2013 12:02

My experience with trading over 18 yr period is u have to have a good memory. This means u have to be interested in how mkts work, not just in making money. A good memory for detail will help one to filter out all the crap that doesn't work for trading and retain the very few things which can work well sometimes. That selection is a very individual choice and sometimes the most simple methods prove the validity of KISS methodologies.

How often do we see novice traders spending their first few years getting into a big tizzy every day because the mkt rubbished their method. This is a major waste of energy so they tend to remain stuck on an exhausting pendulum of chaotic practices until eventually they burn their account. Then they will say the mkt is crazy, the mkt was to blame. When you test their memory for detail you find part of their problem is a lack of interest in the mechanics of market action, they are too focused on $$$'s.

Truncated 5th waves were the bane of my trading life when I started out. I don't have a memory like Ashraf, whom one might compare to a hundred yr old elephant, but I can remember truncated 5th's which occurred at the start of my trading career like it was yesterday. Stuff like that is not a problem once one accepts and adapts. Its just a question of applying trade management parameters to bracket the various scenarios. Even then we cannot be sure about our counts, EW is not suitable for the vast majority of traders imho. Its only potentially one bullet in the arsenal clip.

DaveO

N.Cornwall, UK

Posts: 5733

11 years ago

Jan 8, 2013 0:30

I am always ready for truncated 5th, especially if we see a bounce at pertinent geometry level. When I was an EW fresher I would be caught out on every truncated 5th. It kinda got under my skin. Tell your nice lady this.

DaveO

N.Cornwall, UK

Posts: 5733

11 years ago

Jan 8, 2013 0:23

Yes 5:5:C might be missing which is why I suggested minimum criteria for long entries.

Your nice lady broker, give me a picture pls.

DaveO

N.Cornwall, UK

Posts: 5733

11 years ago

Jan 7, 2013 1:13

http://stks.co/eGi5

That gold chart I posted on 20th december. The C? target level has now been made at the 61.8% ret confluence with 100% ABC symmetry. The pattern for C wave contains the required 5 sequence--all rules satisfied.

If we are seeing a reversal here longs would be triggered at a break of the trend line resistance drawn from the B high, and confirmed by a print above the 1695.40 pivot high made on the 2nd jan.

Qingyu

manchester, UK

Posts: 1763

11 years ago

Jan 6, 2013 23:59

In reply to DaveO's post

dunno, but US always the long term choice. imho nasdaq is a bit higher than real value, 20% drop needed. and, banks worth a buy.

i have no ideas of oil, gas, or drilling companys.

who have the best navy in the world, who have the world.

DaveO

N.Cornwall, UK

Posts: 5733

11 years ago

Jan 6, 2013 18:59

I suppose I should subscribe to AL premium service for short term fundamentals, which although I despise, cannot be ignored for day trading. I just dread the thought of following a maestro who never sleeps:-) I am currently looking to put on some longer term positions and awaiting my chance for gold--amongst others. JPY is another obvious vehicle, US real estate mkt? oil/gas fracking derivatives? genetic engineering? robotics? Lots of opportunities out there until the whole global financial system goes up in smoke. Meanwhile day trading continues to be extremely challenging for an ole boy like me.

DaveO

N.Cornwall, UK

Posts: 5733

11 years ago

Jan 6, 2013 18:41

So many correlations are changing I am like a spirit in the wind (and lacking confidence)

DaveO

N.Cornwall, UK

Posts: 5733

11 years ago

Jan 6, 2013 18:28

Now this guy I take seriously, wouldn't mind getting close to this contrarian who actually has a brain and speaks the truth without a care for whom the truth might upset.

A recap from Kyle Bass.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JUc8-GUC1hY&feature=youtu.be

DaveO

N.Cornwall, UK

Posts: 5733

11 years ago

Jan 4, 2013 20:33

Gold made my downside level at 1630 today for potential ABC pattern completion. Made 1626 followed by big bounce (current 1657)