EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
كيف تنخفض نسبة التضخم في بيتكوين تحت نسبة تضخم الذهب و ما يعني "صلابة" بيتكوين كعملة او إرادة؟
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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US TSYS/RISK/RESEARCH: DB analyst Dominic Konstam noted risk assets
"have more to worry about come end of Q/E2" even though "consensus
concern" for end of QE2 is "potential for higher Treasury ylds" as in "a
'stock' view of the world, ylds are lower than they would otherwise be,
because the NPV of available Tsy supply is lower while the Fed does QE2"
so QE2 end "may bring forward expectations for asset sales so yields may
rise as a result" with also "a flow effect which pushes yields higher."
But he considers QE2 end impact on risk assets as Tsys are "a substitute
for other assets" but turn "less appealing as their price rises" which
"effectively allows demand for risk assets to shift up and to the
right." He adds "any selloff in the Treasury mkt" post-QE2 "may be a
head fake that pops the risky asset mini bubble" which he inferred "from
the lack of credit generation despite QE2" which "becomes a greater
concern to the extent that economic growth doesn't kick up a notch."
Ashraf
US OUTLOOK: Goldman, commenting on the S&P outlook on Tsy debt,
says S&P noted "the US's fiscal profile would be less robust than those
of other AAA rated sovereigns by 2013." They say "material market
implications for investors required to invest a specific portion of
their holdings in AAA securities" could come on a downgrade. They note
so far "the UK has retained its AAA long-term sovereign rating" despite
a similar threat. "Clearly, the US fiscal situation is unsustainable
unless a large, multi-year fiscal tightening is implemented" but there
was no new info today.
Ashraf
As you say, if the answer depends on my outlook then we have cont. $weakness with euro back above
4500...this only anomaly..
Your analysis very succinct and helpful. Thanks..
The news bore particular significance when S&P said there is a 1/3 chance of a credit downgrade in the US long term trading within 2 years. The news immediately triggered sell orders in the USDX, protecting those key support levels in EURUSD at 1.4250s & GBPUSD at 1.62 (55 dma). So the MAIN QUESTION BECOMES, will the USD extend last weeks selloff on the S&P news?, or, will it continue to stabilize following the accumulated selloff in US equities and US treasury bonds on the risk aversion play?
The answer to that question depends on your outlook. Those with a 2-4 day horizon are likely to find further upside in USDX against NZD, GBP and CAD DESPITE THE SURGE IN GOLD. 09680s in USDCAD remains the targeted ceiling, while NZDUSD eyes 0.7750s after those weaker than exp CPI figures. Keeping an eye on US equity indices is key, as S&P500 nears the 100 dma at 1287. But even if we do see 1287, it would not be particularly severe for global risk appetite, unless we break below the 1250 low, which denotes a peak-to-trough pullback greater than the usual 6-7% declines seen over the last 7 months.
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Ashraf Laidi