EURUSD 1.1851 |
USDJPY 111.52 |
GBPUSD 1.3772 |
AUDUSD 0.7485 |
USDCAD 1.2406 |
GBPJPY 153.59 |
EURJPY 132.15 |
AUDJPY 83.48 |
CADJPY 89.86 |
Silver 26.23 |
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Friday's $2431 high in gold consisted of a 21% rise from the Feb 14th low. Such percentage extensions from key lows or/and technical levels such as the 200-DMA, could flag crucial opportunities for partial/full profit-taking. Watch here.
Bitcoin versus Miners Performance
As many of you know 2023 was kind to members of our WhatsApp Broadcast Group who snapped up shares in bitcoin miners, while 2024 has so far been more superior to Bitcoin than most of the miners...
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Long EURUSD ? Target 1.21 ?
Your last call 81 was when it hit 88.
Let me raise you my target:
USDJPY 125
Dollar index to 100.
Your target is 81 on dollar index and 102 on USDJPY.
Please do not deceive more people.
Short USDJPY at 106. The trade was stopped. Long EURUSD was stopped.
His basic idea has been to short USD no matter. what. To justify this mind bias and marriage to USD shorts, he will use any means and any patterns to justfiy the trade. So when he shorted USDJPY, he said, US fiscal deficit will worsen because of the mexico wall. So he imagines fiscal deficit will worsen and hence shorts USD. Not a brick has lai yet but he goes an shorts USDJPY.
Then to further justify the trade even when the trade is out of money by 100 pips, he issues a youtube video saying CFTC JPB positions are positive for the first time in a long time. The guy knows nothing about CFTC. CFTC positioning is by hedgers, specs. No one knows their play but our signal guy Ashraf issues shorts basis CFTC.
If that is not enough, he goes and longs EURUSD at 1.23. Absolute laughable stuff as you look back. No basis at all except ECB will taper. Now Draghi has not even mentioned a word of taper, but Ashraf reads his lps and says taper coming so go long EURUSD at 1.23. All stopped. 1000s pips of stops.
So DXY is at 88 and he says because of worsening fiscal in US, it will hit 81. If he had zoomed the DXY 30 year chart, he would have seen how it was testing the broken long term line at 88 and was bound to rise.
It has risen 6% now. What does Ashraf do now ? Short more USD.
This time against AUD, CAD, JPY....wow.....mind blowing trading. RBA is dovish. RBNZ is dovish. BoC is mildly hawkish but it does not matter because of tariff, USDCAD is headed higher.
What a signal guy ...Has anyone seen a speciment like him?
Ashraf, Do you hate America and hence a bias against the USD ? Many people hate america and therefore love shorting USD.
Please look at USD long term charts again. Look at yields again. The short end of the curve. What is justifying your continued USD shorts ? How can you justify yields 2.55% on a 2 year and short USD. Can you imagine the trillions that are flowing into USD 2 Y to get risk free 2.5% ?
Today trading lesson for YOU. Please read carefully. Am trying to help you learn trading so you improve.
You have USDCAD shorts, USDJPY Shorts, audusd longs.
So you are net USD shorts despite suffering massive losses on USD. You were short USD even when dollar index was down at 88. It has risen 6% and you are still short. It is only getting warmed.
You had yearly target of 81. Atleast have the courtesy to say you were wrong and that target no longer looks possible.
Now for today trading lessons:
First lesson: Forex is a central bank game. Long currencies whose CB is raising rates and short whose CB is dovish or less hawkish.
There are ONLY TWO Central banks who are hawkish while a third one is known to be very sensitive to inflatiokn.
FED AND ECB are currently hawkish or set to raise rates. FED is middle of it. The only question is if they raise it 3 times or 4 times this year. Either case, Dollar index will hit 100. Currently at 93.3. So instead of going short dollar, it is a great chance to go long.
So USD +1 on CB hawkishness.
Secondly: Forex is also a short term yield game. It is less a play on the longer end. You seem to keep throwing in 10 year yeld 3% extra without really understanding what it means and what drives them. You have no idea of flows etc.
So currently US 2y 2.5%. That is huge. Last year it was half of it. USD is still no where near relfecting that rate. So more gas left in USD as per yield.
You went Long AUDUSD. Makes no sense. RBA is neutral and the 2 year yield on aussie is just a little above the US. Why would anyone buy aussie over USD ? So go short AUDUSD. This bounce to 7660 is golden before it crashes to 7200.
So please take a printout and learn trading. Any doubts, post it here.
I have learnt more trading than you and I started 8 years back. Was a computer engineer. So this is me giving back advice to you ....want to see you do well....
I didnt mean to.
But am irritated that you dont do a little more deep analysis before issuing trades.
AM not lying.
I have your full trade list in excel. Should I post ? It will be very bad for your marketing.
I can post them at forexfactory and fpa sites and it will finish your business. So dont say am lying.
You had a few trade winners in 2016 and also in 2018. The trades were long EURUSD as the thing was blasting away. Your logic for those trades and the trades are all naive and beginner style.
Selling at resistance and uspport and keeping 250 pips stops is sure way of losing client money.
Why have you stopped taking twitter answer option? Earlier clients used to complain on twitter so you now have disabled that feature.
I suggest you learn trading a bit.
For your next few trades
Go long GBPJPY
EURJPY
USDJPY.
Short AUDUSD
Short NZDUSD
\Long EURAUD
EURNZD
GBPNZD LONGS.
They are trend trades. No H&S crap stuff.
Do proper analysis and make your self worthy to have fees.
I know your full employement. Many people know in forex world. Its a small world.
I will keep your comments and answer them briefly.
- You stating that we had only 1 year of success out of 8. That is a blatant lie and your citing of stats is wrong, therefore another lie. Take the period from Nov 2017 to March 2018, or the entire year of Brexit of 2015, shorting GBP since Oct 2014 or shorting equities in summer of 2015. You also omitted the first 9 months of 2016, then getting the USD call from late Jan 2017 into year end.
- There are many other phases of winning trades based on anticipatory and real-time insights.
- I understand your excitement about the freedom to complain about losing trades on the website of the producer of the trades, but doing in a manner where you deform the truth with insults and lies about what I did at CMC and what i currently do now shows dishonesty of your part.
Ashraf
Here is some help for you.
Only EURJPY is a good trade. Mark my words, all your other trades are stupid and wrong. Your constant trading to trade of resistance and support is naive and what a beginner does. Beginner will sell at resistance and buy at supports. This kind of trading gets your 35% hit rate. It is down right stupid to poay $110 for this. Every one knows the supports and resistance.
What you need to do is identify a trend and stick with it.
For example when EURUSD broke 1.2160 that was a trend start. See it fell to 1.15. You never issued a single short EURUSD.
Same with GU. No short issued. Missed the whole down ride.
Same with AU. The thin hits 7500 and you get excited. Check out the 2y rate on aussie bond and compare it to US. See if a long makes sense.
USDJPY broke out above 108.3 and no longs issued. Instead of a long you go short and the reason is a head and shoulder. Who trades H&S ? Are we in 1980 ? Such patterns exist to fool people. They have no psycology behind them. At best H&S is a breakout patter where a trade can be taken above the head.
USDJPY is pure yield game. If you had looked at US10Y and JGB 10 y. You would see USDJPY longs make sense.
Unless you understand bond market fundamentals and be patient for trades to form proper formation, you are going to be as bad as you were when you started.
You were in middle east and it was amazing how you had a presentation while your trades were in red. It is unbelievable how you do it after losing all client capital that is assuming you have some clients.
Just cause you have 1 good run in a year does not make you a good trader. A good trader is one who has 70% hit rate. You have 35%. Your losses are far more than your wins. Your reasons for issuing trades are soo bad and poor that it is clear you have never ever traded personal money.
Put some away time and spemnd 6 months at a quality trading shop and startg as a intern and learn trading.
You are as bad a they come.
AUDUSD long is a wrong trade. Close tha ttrade while you can. Just because 0.7500 is a 17 year old trendline does not mean you go long there. DXY has broken above a 30 year trend line and hence it is headed much higher. So your logic is foolish.
AUDUSD is going to go to .7350 your stop 300 pip away. Take my advice and close it.
USDCAD will hit your stop 1.3130. Close your shorts while you can.
USDDJPY will hit your stop 111.3. Close your longs while you can.
EURGBP will defintely hit your stop at 0.8680 cause BoE will raise rates before ECB. They have lower threshold for inflation.
There is ONLLY one good trade in your pack: Can you guess which ? It is the only trade which is in a TREND.
Trading is not like writing books and appearing on TV and making absolutely stupid interviews.
You are probably the only trader I know who went short DXY at 88.