Archived IMT (2008.10.13)

High yielding FX rallying against the lower yielding dollar and yen as European and US equities advance more than 4.00% following announcements from Fed, ECB, BoE and SNB to inject unlimited amounts of liquidity to credit markets. It may be without question that Monday will see the beginning of a positive week in the financial markets, but the duration of the rally remains in doubt. We reiterate what we said on Friday about "USDJPYs recovery off the 98.59 low to 101 may run into temporary resistance at 101.50, but we expect momentum to be fortified next week into the 103.30 target, which is the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the Oct 3 high. We continue to expect a retest of the 98.50 low, followed by the 13-year lows of 95.73 reached in March. Traders must not confound corrective recoveries in risk appetite and USDJPY, which could extend to as high as 105.