Archived IMT (2009.09.30)

Those who followed our prior IMT on the ECB tender saw no surprise in the initial EUR rally after the ECB tender was less than expected at 75 bln (see rationale in IMT). BIGGER THAN EXPECTED decline in ADP of 254K (vs expected 200K) boosted USD and JPY, while better than expected revision in Q2 GDP showing smaller decline further boosted USD gains. EURUSD seen testing $1.4570, GBPUSD finds support at $1.5955. EIA INVENTORY DATA DUE at 14:30 GMT expected to show a build of 2.1 million barrels in crude inventories and a buildup of 1.2 million barrels in gasoline stocks. Yesterdays release of the API showed a build of 2.76 million barrels in crude and 2.3 million barrels of distillate. Watch 68.60 resistance in oil, which trigger a pullback to 66.20 in event of furtehr builds. We warned repetitively in this morning's tweets http://twitter.com/alaidi about the strong likelihood for a EURCHF bounce off the 200-day MA of1.5080s. EURCHF is now up 100 pips. GBPUSD failed right at the $1.6120 resistance mentioned this morning before falling a full cent. Techs eyeing $1.5955.