Archived IMT (2008.10.14)

Just as last weeks violent in equities was characterized by forced selling resulting from hedge fund redemptions and margin calls, Monday's buying spree also resulted from hasty buying aimed at booking short-term profits in a bear market rally. US indices are down 2% and the aggressive buying in high yielders is now retreating. Escalating volatility is a typical characteristic of bear markets --even when markets rally by more than 5%. This was typical during the bear market years of 2001 and 2002. With this information on hand, forex traders can anticipate plenty more opportunities of unwinding carry trades and money flowing into JPY and CHF. I mentioned to CMC clients yesterday that 103 constituted a major resistance. Today's failure at 103 is triggered 101.50. 101.20 acts as interim support. GBPUSD remains favored than GBPJPY as long as equity selling is less than -3%.