Archived IMT (2010.03.12)

Better than expected Eurozone Indus production figures and lack of any Chinese rate hike fuels the risk trade and weighs against USD and JPY. Key EURUSD resistance stands at $1.3780-90, thus a close above $1.38 is required to extend the 5-week upleg and eliminate the downward channel. GBPUSD resistance stands at $1.5220 US Feb retail sales would have to disappoint markets for the USD to obtain any boost. Upside surprise in US retail sales may be negative for USD from risk perspective, but they may prove positive for USD next week in the event that FOMC further upgrades its outlook. Decline in Canada unemp rate to 8.2% braodens CAD rally; USDCAD support stands at 1.012.