Archived IMT (2010.04.26)

CAD NET LONGS in latest speculators commitments report (SEE CHART http://chart.ly/e836wm ) indicate nearly 6 consecutive weeks of net CAD longs (net USD shorts) testing (but failing) the highs of October 2007. Comparing the peaking net longs vs. the peaking CADUSD (price in chart is inverse scale and NOT USDCAD), we find that the pattern does make sense. But stay alert of a retreat in CAD longs and continued gains in CAD, in which case could be a bearish divergence against the loonie. While USDCAD support stands at 0.9970, upside remains capped at 1.0070 and 1.0170. WATCH OUT from deteriorating technicals in OIL, which continues to fail the Apr 6 trend line resistance, now calling for 82.80. FALLING LUMBER PRICES for 3rd straight day could also weigh on CAD, especially as Canada now supplies over a 1/3 of US lumber consumption.