Archived IMT (2010.07.14)

US JUNE RETAIL SALES -0.5% (vs exp -0.2% and prev -1.1%), ex autos -0.1% from prev -1.2%. Better but not good enough is one way to sum up these figures. Youd have to remove autos, gas and building material to obtain a positive retail sales figure. The 1.3% DECLINE IN JUNE IMPORT PRICES was the biggest decrease since Jan 2009. This is a vocal message of disinflationary conditions, which will further dampen any inflationary fears from the hawkish members of the FOMC. Watch the US 10-year yield retreating towards 3.0% especially after what we believe to be another dovish set of minutes from the FOMC. EURGBP is vulnerable to 0.8260 and 0.8210 in medium term.

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