Archived IMT (2011.03.29)

EURUSD recovers above $1.41 despite FT reports that ECB had bought Portuguese bonds on Mar 18 and that it may snap up more purchases as 10-yr yields hit new record of 8.21%. Also reports that Spains Banco Base will ask for over EUR 1.3 bln indicate the Cajas difficulty of meeting new capital requirements. Possibly weighing on the USD are the dovish speeches from Feds Evans (Chicago) and Rosengren (Boston) each of whom implied the continuation of QE2 to at least June. And with nothing in the news to upset risk appetite, EURUSD technicals seek to retest the $1.4150 trendline resistance, before attaining $1.4190 (seen conservative cap for the day). $1.4280 remains the double-top, which is unlikely to be broken, considering the broadening uncertainty with Portugal. But the question that euro traders must ask: would a Portuguese bailout really cause the euro to fall as long as it does not mean a default? After all, we did have 2 bailouts and no defaults. Or, is the adequacy of the EFSF and later ESM be stretched thin by a 3rd bailout? Having said that, EURCAD remains on a downfoot as the gains in CAD vs USD clearly outpace those of the EUR vs USD. 1.3620 seen as the interim downside target, with key trendline foundation at 1.3570.