Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2011.04.01)

by Ashraf Laidi
Apr 1, 2011 3:02

If the 4th time doesnt work try a 5th time. The EUR 24 bln in required capital for Irish banks under the banking stress tests means the Irish govt will need to raise more capital than the EUR 35 bln allocated under the EUR 85 bln bailout package from the IMF and EU. Allied Irish Banks will need nearly times the $EUR 5 bln it was told to raise. The euro has gone from starting the day with a bang via the 2.6% March CPI and hawkish comments from ECBs Smaghi to the Irish stress tests. But EURUSD remains well above the Feb 14 trendline support of 1.3980. It is important to state the currency shall have a strong bias and retest the 1.4270s resistance mainly due to rate hike expectations rather than be dragged by peripheral problems. The other side of that coin is USD part, which enters another potentially strong NFP at or above the 190K. And so barring any upside surprises in US NFP, EUR will have next weeks ECB meeting to look forward to.


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