Intraday Market Thoughts

GBP Shrugs off Disappointing data; US Durable Goods Slump

by Patrik Urban
May 25, 2011 13:34

USD was already coming off its highs before the disappointment in US data, this time from an unexpected 3.6% decline in Apr durable goods, which fell below -2.6% expected). March durable goods orders were revised down to -4.4% from the prev reported -4.1%.

London session saw a slight improvement in sentiment as European equities opened weak but quickly recovered all their losses. USD is lower against most currencies, and even EURUSD could regain towards $1.4120s for now

Finnish parliament approved the participation in bailout of Portugal and Greek PM reiterated that he is determined to stay in EZ and seek political consensus. Despite these developments, the Euro has not been able to stage any kind of meaningful recovery.

The only relevant EZ news today - GfK German Consumer Climate came out at 5.5, slightly worse then previous 5.7. Consumer climate has been

gradually worsening over the past four months.

UK revised Q1 GDP came out at 0.5% as expected (1.8% y/y). Household Spending q/q has worsened to -0.6% which is the largest q/q fall since

Q2 2009. BBA mortgage approvals came out at 29.4K vs 31.2K, down 18% y/y. GBP is not paying attention to these numbers and is the relative strength winner. GBPUSD is currently trading around 1.6230; 100+ points off todays lows.

Commodity & FX traders await Crude oil inventories data that is expected to decrease from previous reading of 0.0M barrels to -1.6M barrels. Since February there have been only two instances of negative results. Negative reading would underpin oil and could give a boost to CAD.

 
 

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