Intraday Market Thoughts

G20 set to Conclude Ahead of Greece no Confidence Vote

by Kyle Morrison
Nov 4, 2011 9:16

G20 set to conclude, Greece no confidence vote due, European Services PMI deepens further into contraction, RBA downgrades inflation and growth expectations, US employment report due.

Today's G20 meeting is set to conclude with new measures to boost the IMFs firepower. The rest of the communique is expected to reaffirm the action plan for global growth that made up the previous communique in September. Latest Premium Intermarket Insights on EURUSD, silver & US crude are below.

Tonight's no-confidence vote on Greece is expected to go ahead, with the likelihood that Papandreou will lose. There are also unconfirmed reports that PM Papandreou has brokered a deal with ministers to hand power to a coalition government if they help him win confidence vote. Meanwhile, the referendum idea appears to have been given up for now.

After yesterday's surprise ECB rate attention returns to economic data in Europe and this is expected to underscore the reasons for yesterdays long overdue action. The latest and final iterations of the October services PMI data for Germany, Italy, France and the Eurozone is due to be released. While German PMI is likely to remain in expansion territory at 52.1, all the others are expected to remain firmly in contraction territory at 45.5, 45 and 47.2 respectively.

Earlier this morning, Eurozone Oct services PMI deepened into contraction territory, falling to 46.4 from 48.8, while German Oct Services PMI edges up to 50.6 from 49.7

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The Reserve Bank of Australia explained its rate cut this week by saying that risks to growth remain skewed to the downside with China growth set to cool to an annual rate of between 8-9%, while the turbulence in markets from the European debt crisis is expected to weigh on sentiment. The bank cut its inflation and growth forecasts with core inflation set to remain within its 2%-3% target band until the end of 2013, while the economy should grow at close to average rates over the same period. The bank also expects to economy to grow between 3-4% between 2012 and 2013. This suggests that the likely next rate move is more likely to be down than up.

German factory orders for September are expected to recover slightly to 0.1% after Augusts sharp 1.4% fall while September factory gate prices are expected to slip back to 5.8% year on year.

Todays US payrolls report for October isnt likely to offer much comfort in that regard though jobs growth is expected. More on that in the US IMT.

 
 

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