Intraday Market Thoughts

Resilience Maintained, Link to Last Night's Webinar

by Patrik Urban
Jun 13, 2012 13:14

Eurozone industrial production fell; German CPI unrevised; Swiss PPI declined. Spanish and Italian yields push higher initially but eased later. Focus turns to retail sales, PPI and RBNZ rate decision at the end of the session. Premium longs in EURUSD, AUDUSD & gold near their Monday targets. See more below. Also fond below is the LINK TO YESTERDAYs 60-min WEBINAR with Ashraf Laidi (on FX, gold, oil & S&P500), George Cavaligos & Fari Hamzei.

Risk appetite improved during the London session which sent the buck lower against most majors. Considering the looming Greek elections it is difficult to imagine such trend will continue further.

ُُEurozone industrial production fell 0.8% in April from -0.1% but this was still better than 1.2% decline that analysts expected. On annual basis production dropped 2.3% from previous -1.5%. Sharp rebound in energy production (nearly 7%) helped to negate the decline of all other components of the index. Worryingly, Germany experienced the second largest decline among EMU members (-2.0%) right after Portugal (-6.5%).

In other news we learned that German final CPI for May was confirmed at 1.9% y/y and -0.2% m/m in line with initial estimate; that Swiss PPI declined 0.2% in May from previous -0.1% but the annual rate remained at -2.3% and that Greeks continue to withdraw funds ahead of Sunday's election at a rate between EUR 500-800M a day.

Spanish 10 year yield rose to 6.74% and Italian to 6.21% before they both declined slightly.

The US session starts at 8:30 am ET with May retail sales that are expected to decline 0.1% from previous +0.1% m/m (core sales seen steady at 0.1%). Producer inflation that is due at the same time is anticipated to ease in May to 1.2% from April's 1.9% but core PPI is seen rising to 2.8% from 2.7% y/y.

By the end of the session at 5:00 pm, RBNZ will announce its cash rate decision which is expected to remain unchanged at 2.5%. Nevertheless, the kiwi could weaken after the statement is published as it is likely to be dovish and could signal a coming rate cut.

Longs in EURUSD, AUDUSD and gold are nearing their targets from Mondays Intermarket Insights. Only one of the long GBPUSD was filled and hit all targets. Direct Access here: Non subscribers can join here:

LINK TO LAST NIGHTS WEBINAR BY Ashraf Laidi, George Cavaligos & Fari Hamzei


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