Intraday Market Thoughts

Onto US PPI & Consumer Confidence

by Patrik Urban
Oct 12, 2012 12:45

RBA hints at another rate cut; German growth to increase in 2012 but decrease in 2013; Eurozone industrial production rose m/m but declined y/y; G7+IMF+WB meeting. PPI and consumer confidence is next. In the latest of the Premium Insights, 1 of 2 EURUSD longs was filled (1.2920 hit), 1 of 2 EURJPY filled (as low as 101.20) & 1 of 2 GBPUSD was filled (as low as 1.6019). See more below.

The greenback is trading weaker across the board except AUD. European equities are barely changed and the relative strength winner is NZD while AUD is the weakest.

The common currency pushed higher to 1.2985 but AUDUSD sold off its highs after the RBA governor Glenn Stevens said that the RBA has a room to move on interest rates, noting softening growth. AUDUSD trades around 1.0245 from 1.0288 high while EURAUD strengthened to 1.2653 from 1.2578 session low.

MNI reports that the German government will increase its growth forecast for 2012 from 0.7% to 1% but decrease it for 2013 from 1.6% to 1.0%. Last forecasts were published in May.

European data calendar was limited to Eurozone industrial production that rose 0.6% in August which is the same pace of growth as in July. However, on annual basis it worsened to -2.9% from -2.8%.

Along with the G7 meeting in Tokyo, the annual meeting of the IMF and the World Bank starts today and continues tomorrow. Headlines are likely to impact the markets on Monday open.

The US session opens at 8:30 am ET with September PPI that is expected to slow to 0.8% after surging 1.7% m/m (1.8% from 2.0% y/y) while the core figure is seen steady at 0.2% m/m (2.5% y/y). University of Michigan consumer confidence is due at 9:55 am ET and it is anticipated to decline in October marginally to 78.1 from previous 78.3.

The direct link to the latest Premium Insights can be found here: ?a=686 Non subscribers can join here:


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