Intraday Market Thoughts

Retail Sales Beat Estimates, BoC Wont Hike

by Adam Button
Oct 16, 2012 0:30

US retail sales beat expectations and bailouts for Greece and Spain inched closer. The antipodean currencies led the way while the yen lagged. The RBA minutes will highlight the dovish bias down under. Latest Premium Insights cover the multi-stochastic time frames in Spain's IBEX-35. Thursday's Insights see all EURUSD and cable longs in progress, with 2 gold and 1 of 2 silver stopped out. AUDUSD and CADJPY hit all targets.

US retail sales, excluding autos and gasoline rose 0.9% compared to a +0.4% reading expected. The other measures of spending in the report were also strong and the prior figures were revised upward.

The retail report points to a rebound in consumer spending but was tempered by talk that iPhone sales may have skewed the numbers upwards. Sales at electronics and appliance stores jumped 4.5% in the month the largest increase since Oct 2011, which was also the month the iPhone 4S was released.

Risk trades rallied to their best levels of the session after the report. EUR/USD touched 1.2980 and USD/JPY rose as high as 78.86.

Earlier, a Der Spiegel reported that the Troika recommended the release of the next tranche of Greek aid. The Spanish press also reported progress on the Spanish aid request.

The Canadian dollar was in focus after BOC Governor Carney did not repeat the usual hawkish refrain that: some modest withdrawal of the present considerable monetary policy stimulus may become appropriate.

Earlier in the day, a BOC business survey showed dramatically lower hiring and investment spending intentions at Canadian firms. Housing data was also worrisome.

USD/CAD climbed to 0.9800 after the comments (or lack of comments) but could strengthen to parity if/when the hiking bias is official removed.

The calendar is relatively light. At 2145 GMT, New Zealand CPI is expected up 1.0%y/y in the third quarter.

At 0030 GMT, the RBA will releases the minutes of the October meeting. It looks increasingly certain that the RBA will lower rates in November. What is surprising, and perhaps telling, is the resilience of the Australian dollar.

The latest Premium Insights with the G.C & multi-time frame / multi-speed stochastics highlight the outlook for the next 4 weeks. Non Subscribers click here:



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