Intraday Market Thoughts

EURUSD Nears 1.28; Existing Home Sales Next

by Patrik Urban
Nov 19, 2012 13:06

Riskier assets gain; JPY retraces gains ahead of BOJ; Italian industrial orders fell. Market awaits existing home sales. Remaining Premium longs for EURUSD await final target at 1.2840. Premium we posted below the 2 charts for cable to explain the rationale for the latest Premium positions, 1 of which hit all targets. Also, 1 of 2 USDJPY Premium Insights and the remaining CADJPY hit all targets. The 3 charts on USDJPY cover more ground on the pair. See more below.

The current trading week that is shorter due to the upcoming Thanksgiving holidays started on a positive note. Risk trades were pushing higher during Asia and throughout the London session. European equities are gaining over 1% and the relative strength winner is NZD while USD is the weakest.

Friday's optimistic comments on the progress regarding the fiscal cliff along with chatter that Greece will be given the next tranche of aid at tomorrow's Eurogroup meeting underpinned the riskier assets. However, the uncertainty that comes from the ongoing tensions in the middle ease could easily change the whole market sentiment around.

USDJPY is losing a portion of its recent gains ahead of tomorrow's BOJ decision as it trades around 81.15. New easing seems more likely to be announced at the following BOJ meeting on December 19th after the election in mid December than tomorrow. Further retracement therefore seems likely. Key short term support is around 80.40.

Italian industrial orders fell sharply in September by 4.2% after growing 2.7% in August. On annual basis the third largest economy of the Eurozone lost 12.8% of orders. EURUSD trades around 1.2770.

The sole item on the US data calendar is existing home sales that are expected to rise marginally to 4.76M in October from previous 4.75M.

1 of 2 Premium cable longs hit all targets. Here are the 2 cable charts used to help explain the rationale The piece also focuses on the timing of the new and existing EURUSD insights as well as new gold, and GBPUSD ideas. Direct Access to today's Premium Insights is found here: Non- subscribers can have a free trial here:


Latest IMTs