Archived IMT (2009.08.13)

Risk appetite is abruptly cut after the unexpected decline in US July retail sales of 0.1% (exp 0.7%) and the 0.6% decline in sales ex autos. Dow futures down 50% from +110 pts, while USD and JPY build up gains vs most currencies. Weekly jobless claims rose to 558K from 554K. Any decline in oil prices below 71.30 and onto 70.90s would likely be accompanied by a sharper gains in USD. For now, EUR remains propped by the unexpected 0.3% q/q increase in Germanys Q2 GDP, which comprises a technical end to the recession and a wake-up call to the widely misguided forecasts suggesting the US recovery would precede that of Europe. Those FIFO claims (First-in-First-out). USDJPY eyes 95.20