Archived IMT (2009.09.11)

The duration of the current equity rally has now lasted 6 months (from 1st week of March to second week of September), which is about 3 times the duration of all bear market rallies and downlegs since 2008. The massive fiscal and policy stimuli from the US authorities as well as the partial nationalization of most big banks contributed in making this the longest bear market rally since 1930s. Todays $3.00 sell-off in oil prices despite lofty gold prices highlights the USD-nature of the lingering risk appetite. Todays article highlights the disparity between the USD and JPY, suggesting that the equities advance is well into gravity-defying territory.