Intraday Market Thoughts Archives

EMERGING MARKETS TAKING OVER IN FOOTBALL (Soccer) as the Latin American nations (central & south American) put up a valiant display in the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. (by order of display & performance) Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Uruguay, Paraguay and Chile all did very well, while South Korea, Nth Korea & Japan have legitimate chances of advancing. Yes, even North Korea can do it if they after that performance against Brazil. Enough about how badly England played and lets give some praise to Algeria, whos classy display (Boudebbouz, Matmour, Kadir) shook up England defence, while MBohi & Bougherra shut out Rooney, Gerard & Heskey like no Premier League defender could. England was angry when Beckenbauer criticized their style of play. But when Rooney said England will easily bear Algeria, no one said a word. Thats what happens when arrogance is turns into ignorance. MAY THE BEST 2 TEAMS ADVANCE in GROUPE C. Tahya Aljazaer.

USD INDEX hits a low of 85.45, as the risk rally extends US equity indices well above their 200-day MAs. A monthly close below 86.50 will prevent the index from posting a record 7 monthly increases. While we did see a EURUSD close above $1.2370, we've yet to see a weekly close above that level. The FOMC announcement will maintain the low rates mantra, which will likely help stabilize equities unless event risk from credit rating agencies reemerges. Ashraf is in South Africa for the World Cup so updates are minimal. Enjoy !

EUROs TIME and SPACE: Weve discussed the TIME element of EURUSD, whereby the pair had consistently failed to post more than 3 straight days until Monday when all has changed. What about SPACE (or price)? Only once did EURUSD rallied +500 pips from its low before resuming its selloff. This occurred on May 18-20. On Monday, EURUSD hit a session high of $1.2672, which is +330 pips from the June 6th low of 1.1874. Setting the +300 pip limit from the June 6 low, will give us $1.2375-80. This level should act as prelim ceiling, a break of which would give way to $1.2450. Ashraf in South Africa attending the WorldCup for 2 weeks, therefore frequency of updates on this site and Twitter will be less than usual. http://twitter.com/alaidi

FROM PRETORIA: Ashraf attending the World Cup but finding time to tweet (twitter.com/alaidi) and send some IMTs. Just when the euro was extending its rally on broadening risk appetite, Moody's hits Greece with a downgrade into junk status. EURUSD loses a full cent from its $1.23 high despite managing to post its first 4-day winning streak of the year. The next obstacle is to close above $1.2320 (will explain later rationale). We may be on vacation but won't forget the importance of a close above 1107 in SP500 and 10290 in Dow-30. GBP traders watch tomorrow's CPI figures. See http://ashraflaidi.com/economic-calendar/