Intraday Market Thoughts Archives

On the upcoming German economic contraction, Swedish economic cycles & Riksbank monetary policy

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fkT4U8wZgpA

Discussing EFSF guarantees, EURUSD Cycles, Fed/ECB monetary policies

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rEJoZmD8xkc

Discussing the various approaches of technical analysis and trading dynamics in EURUSD and S&P500

http://youtu.be/paIwdUwgtiw

Markets brought a sense of optimism into the weekend after the Eurogroup endorsed the Greek aid tranche and as European leaders appear to make progress on a deal to end the sovereign crisis. On Friday, AUD and CHF were the top performers while USD lagged badly. Fridays CFTC commitment of traders report showed speculative USD longs inching higher.

Throughout the day (and the week) sentiment wavered on every headline. No one is sure of exactly what leaders will accomplish at Sundays summit, if anything, but the absence of headlines suggesting discord suggests progress is being made. Late in the trading day, Austria's finance minister said only two options to leverage the EFSF are being debated.

6 Premium Trades are in progress; including EURUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD, gold, silver & US crude. Direct Access here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=527 To become a subscriber, click here http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

It was also revealed that only euro area leaders will meet on Wednesday, not all 27 EU members. This means a plan for bank recapitalization for Europe must be unveiled on Sunday.

The best concrete news of the day was euro area finance ministers approving the 8 euro aid tranche for Greece. The IMF must still endorse the deal but that could come as soon as today. This was largely expected but the news may still have given a small boost to the euro because it showed that Europe is capable of cooperation.

A troubling caveat from the troika Greek report said that at its current trajectory, Greece would need an additional 252B through 2020. This number is being used in negotiations with bondholders, who will be asked to accept haircuts of 40-60%. The report also says that Greeces debt-to-GDP can be trimmed to 120% (which is still atrocious) by 2021 with a 50% haircut.

We assert that the higher the haircut the better for the euro, so long as bondholders agree. Even with a 60% haircut, Greece would only be able to avoid default under the rosiest of outlooks, but it would stabilize the situation in the short term.

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report

The net long USD position increased by $0.4B to $15.1B. The euro fell 4K deeper into a net short position at -78K while sterling crept 9K closer to neutral at -53K. The yen remains the favourite of speculators but the net position was cut back by 8K to +30K. We imagine many of those who exited JPY longs were regretting it on Friday as USD/JPY fell to an all-time low

The commodity currencies all made gains, led by AUD which added 10K to a net +20K. NZD longs increased 1K to 8K. CAD made a slight improvement but it remains the only commodity currency in a net short position at -25K. All the data is as of the close on Tuesday.

For as long as markets are unwilling to throw the towel on the European debt negotiations and Fed officials continue to throw in hints about their willingness to trigger QE3 (Fed governor Tarullo last night), EURUSD shall remain underpinned at the 1.3630s trendline support, highlighted in our Oct 18 Premium Service. Comments & Analysis added to today's latest Premium Intermarket Insights and EURUSD short has been triggered. DIRECT ACCESS here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=527 To become a subscriber, click here http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/ LISTEN TO ASHRAF speaking with Kathleen Hays at Noon EST (16:00 GMT) on Bloomberg Radio LISTEN HERE: http://www.bloomberg.com/radio

Second summit on 10/26 announced; combining EFSF with ESM could provide EUR 940 bln in lending; German Ifo declines; UK public borrowing rises; Canadian CPI mixed. Market turns to three FOMC members speeches. USDJPY Hits new low at 75.82. NEW Premium Trades are up.

The USD is little changed since London traders got to their desks. The major currencies are likely to stay range bound as market players are unlikely to want to hold risk positions ahead of this Sunday EU summit. The complexity of the situation that Eurozone has to deal with is evident from the latest announcement that a second EU summit will take place on Wednesday 10/26.

Bloomberg reported that a plan to combine EFSF and the ESM to provide EUR 940 bln in funding is being considered and that France could lose its top rating given by S&P should the government borrowing rise due to ballooning deficit and bank recapitalization costs.

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While 940 bln Euros is a significant amount, market participants could be unimpressed as rumors of 2 trillion Euros considered caused the Euro to spike higher just a few days ago.

On the data front, German Ifo Business Climate fell to 106.4 in October from previous 107.4 and the Expectations subindex fell to 97 from 97.1. In the UK, Public sector borrowing increased in September to GBP 11.4 bln from GBP 10.9 bln.

Canadian CPI declined to 0.2% in September from 0.3% in August. However, core CPI ticked up to 0.5 from 0.4%. On annual basis CPI reached 3.2%.

There is no data due during the NY session. However, market volatility could increase during a three speeches that will be delivered today.

At 1:00 pm FOMC member and Minneapolis Fed president Narayana Kocherlakota delivers speech on monetary policy in Minneapolis. Q&A session is expected which often causes stronger market reactions than a prepared speech.

At 1:20 pm FOMC member and Dallas Fed president Richard Fisher speaks about the economy in Dallas.

At 3:00 pm FOMC member and Fed's Governor Janet Yellen delivers a speech in Denver about the outlook for the US economy and economic policy.

Germanys Oct Ifo business sentiment index hit a 16-month low at 106.4 from 107.5 (exp 106), the Ifo current assessment index hit a 12-month low at 116.7 from 117.9 and the forward-looking expectations fell to a 27-month low at 97.0 from 97.1. Although each of the figures were better than expected, they indicate a gradual deterioration in business confidence, which is in line with our base scenario for a German contraction. Meanwhile, Shanghai Composite index closed at its lowest level since July 2009, down 24% from the April highs. Premium Trades are due around 7 am EST, 11 am GMT.

EURUSD remains rangebound around the the 1.3740s after an earlier decline following German opposition to the French proposal to turn the EFSF into a bank that can borrow from the ECB. A second summit is now likely on Tues or Wed, exploring new forms of EFSF implementation. Merkel cancelled a planned speech to German parliament tomorrow because she has no plan to present.

5 for 9 of the Premium trades hit their targets, 2 remain in progress & 2 were stopped out. To subscribe to the Intermarket Insights, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/ Today's Premium trades are due around 7 am EST, 11 am GMT.

No major data from the US

Mixed signs of progress and discord ahead of this weekends EU summit led to jerky trading Thursday. CHF and CAD were the top performers while JPY and USD lagged. The focus will remain strictly on Europe in the upcoming session despite planned speeches from US and Asian policymakers.

The earlier euphoria from the announcement of the EFSF guidelines faded in early US trading, pulling EUR/USD from a session high of 1.3842 down to the session low of 1.3657. The lows came on reports that a deal on Greece and EFSF leverage were highly unlikely at the Oct. 23 summit. The crux of the problem appears to be German opposition to the French proposal to turn the EFSF into a bank that can borrow from the ECB.

Sentiment rebounded on signs that a second summit, likely Tues or Wed, is in the works. Sarkozy released a statement saying leaders plan to deliver a comprehensive and ambitious global response at the second meeting that will include new forms of implementation of the EFSF and a European bank capital plan.

Merkel cancelled a planned speech to German parliament tomorrow because she has no plan to present.

If Merkel can bring German politicians on board, the French plan is likely to go forward and the euro will rally. If there is no agreement, or France is forced into a compromise, the euro will fall.

Italian PM Burlusconi undoubted left some members of his inner circle disgruntled after he nominated Ignazio Visco to lead the Bank of Italy once Mario Draghi takes the helm at the ECB on Nov. 1. The FT reported that Burlusconi changed his mind twice in the 24 hours before the decision.

Earlier reports suggested ECB executive board member Bini-Smaghi had won the nomination. Instead, this move places 3 Italians on the ECB governing council and France -- left with a single member on the 23-member council -- is said to be upset.

Overlooked in the European drama was the Philly Fed. The manufacturing index posted its largest one-month jump in 30 years, climbing to +8.7 from -17.5. The S&P 500 gained 0.5% to 1215.

Asia-Pacific Preview

The calendar features comments from the Feds Kocherlakota at 2345 GMT. At 0030, Australia releases import and export prices. A 3.7% export price rise is expected in Q3 compared to +6.0% in prior quarter. Import expected up 1.0% vs prior +0.8%. Comments from Azumi are expected in early Japanese trading and a speech from Shirakawa is planned for 0635 GMT.

Correcting the last IMT, the trades are 5 for 9 and not 6 for 9 as EURUSD was stopped out. But with 1.3630-40 still holding, longs continue to place stops at or below these levels. The latest twists and turns from Europe report Merkel and Sarkozy will meet Saturday to discuss the Sunday leaders, before a proposal is adopted next week. So now there will be a 2nd summit regarding EFSF expansion and private sector initiatives (amount of haircuts on Greek debt). Markets are nearly exactly where they were at the US opening bell. 5 out of 9 trades hitting all targets. Both of our Premium dual trades in EURJPY hit their targets; One of the two EURUSD dual trades is stopped out --the other remains unfilled. Both Gold & silver shorts hit targets. USDJPY & EURGBP remain in progress. ES stopped out Get DIRECT ACCESS here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=526 NON-members click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

Ashraf

More "dual trades" on EURUSD & EURJPY as consolidation reins despite a brief breakout in EURUSD to 1.3840s

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Wire reports indicate Mouammar Qaddafi was captured. US authorities have yet to confirm the news. Euro hits 1.3830s on stronger EFSF guidelines; German PPI higher; UK retail sales rose; Swiss ZEW improved for the first time in six months. Jobless claims, existing home sales and Philly Fed manufacturing is next. All 3 of EURUSD Premium trades hit targets, making 6 out of 9. Today's Premium Trades are due at the US open.

Euro moved sharply higher today from around 1.3672 to 1.3842 on EFSF guidelines that will be presented to German lawmakers. DJ reports that these guidelines are based on the agreement reached on July 21st and allow for limited leverage through banks; limit EFSF bonds purchase to 50% of total issue and restricts market intervention to public sector debt.

German PPI rose 0.3% in September after contracting -0.3% in August. This translates to annual PPI 5.5%, unchanged from last reading. Prices have increased mainly due to rising energy and food costs.

In the UK, retail sales rose unexpectedly 0.6% in September from -0.4% in August, which is 0.6% annual growth. However, this level of growth is unlikely to be sustained due to increasing unemployment, sluggish wage growth and high inflation. GBPUSD trades around 1.58, about 90 points above the pre-announcement level.

Swiss ZEW economic expectation index was declining for the past six months. In October it slowed its rate of decline when it printed -54.4 from previous -75.7.

The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with jobless claims that are seen lower at 401K from previous 404K and Canadian wholesale sales that are expected slightly lower in August at 0.4% from 0.8%.

10:00 am ET will bring September existing home sales anticipated to decline to 4.94M from 5.03M and Philly Fed manufacturing that is expected to lower its rate of decline to -9 in October from -17.5 in September. On Monday, the Empire State manufacturing index was below expectations.

Consumer confidence in Eurozone also due at 10:00 am is expected to worsen in October to -20 from previous -19.

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Ashraf Laidi

Japans govt confirms a joined BoJ-govt taskforce aimed dealing with the strong yen and expand facility to aid M&As to Y10 trln. German Sep PPI rose 0.3% m/m from -0.3% (exp 0.2%), +5.5% y/y, matching the previous and expectations. FT story says EU bank recapitalization could be could be under E100 bln, which is a disappointingly low figure from the reported EUR 200 bln. The days key events in Europe start at 8:30 GMT with UK Sep retail sales expected unchanged m/m, +0.7% y/y, from previous prev -0.2% m/m, unchanged y/y. Retail sales ex-fuel expected +0.2% m/m, +0.6% y/y from previous last -0.1% m/m -0.1%, y/y. At 9:00 GMT, Swiss October ZEW sentiment index also due, last was -75.7. Eurozone Oct consumer confidence exp -20 from -19.1. At 13:00 GMT is the Troika press conference following third review of Ireland. Premium Intermarket Insights to be released at the start of the US session. For direct access to latest trades, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=524 Non subscribers can get a 1-week trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

Questions about yesterdays EFSF leverage report weighed on sentiment Wednesday. Sterling was the top performer while CAD lagged. The Asia-Pacific calendar is quiet, with only lower-tier releases upcoming. 5 of the 9 Premium Trades hit all targets. 2 in progress, 1 unfilled and 1 stopped out.

Its sounding more and more likely that someone at the Guardian will have some explaining to do on Monday. Multiple reports are casting doubt on the assertion that Germany and France have reached a deal as part of a comprehensive plan that will leverage the bailout funds to 2 trillion euros.

5 of 9 Premium, trades hit all targets (2 EURUSD, 1 EURJPY), 2 in progress (USDJPY & EURGBP), 1 unfilled (EURUSD), 1 stopped out (EURJPY). For direct access to these trades, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=524 Non subscribers can get a 1-week trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

A particularly damning rebuttal came from the WSJ who reported that using the EFSF to provide direct first-loss guarantees would violate the EU no-bailout clause. They said a plan under discussion would allow countries to borrow extra funds from the EFSF and hold that portion in trust in case of default an idea so laughably feeble that it seems possible. Merkel and Finlands PM also downplayed summit expectations.

EUR/USD fell 150 pips from its intraday high of 1.3870 as sentiment turned. The S&P 500 fell 1.25% to 1210. Oil declined $2.25 to $86.08; gold was down $15 to $1665

Economic data was downbeat, with the Beige Book showing continued expansion but with growth in many districts modest or slight. Consumer spending was weak excluding autos and tourism. Lending also softened and the jobs market remains in the doldrums. News on housing starts was positive as starts jumped to 658K from 572K.

Inflation is slowing in the US but remains well above the levels the Fed would need to see for QE3. Headline CPI was at 3.9% and core at 2.0%. With energy prices lower recently, higher vehicle production and the alleviation of temporary factors expectations are for inflation readings to drop in the coming months. The depth of the drop will be a large factor for the Fed.

The data calendar is essentially void for the Asia-Pacific session but a major cast of European leaders is assembled in Frankfurt for evening meetings and reporters will be pressing them for headlines.

My video presentation on the technical & fundamental essentials of EURUSD last week in Stockholm, Tackling EFSF, fibonnaci, Candlestick analysis, stops placement & classical technical analysis. Also taking a look at the S&P500 technicals & intermarket technical analysis as well as my overall forecasts. 25-minute video http://bit.ly/qoHGjP

Ashraf Laidi

Ashraf

The combination of mixed US earning and the conflicting signals and rumours from the Eurozone will add to choppiness, sharp market moves and non-directional trading. If you were to follow this market strictly on fundamentals, then you'd have likely had your share of confusion & loss of capital. The European morning started with: i) falling euro (talk of French downgrade & dampening down of hopes by Franco/German officials about Sunday's deal); then by; ii) rebounding euro (story of expanded EFSF to 2 trillion); and later by iii) Spain downgrade by Moodys & Apples disappointing earnings (hurting risk appetite). But technically, EURUSD continued to trade inside a familiar range. ADDITIONAL PREMIUM Intermarket Insights have been issued, including 3 trading ideas on EURUSD Subscribers click here for DIRECT access http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=524 Non-subscribers can take a 1 week trial here http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

Ashraf Laidi

Additional Premium Intermarket Inisghts have been issued, including 3 trading ideas on EURUSD Subscribers click here for DIRECT access http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=524 Non-subscribers can take a 1 week trial here http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

Ashraf

Euro ended lower in late Tuesday, after starting on a down note in the morning, followed by a late session rebound on a report that Germany and France have agreed to lever the EFSF. But the single currency lost most of those later session gains when Moody's downgraded of Spain. AUD was the top performer while GBP lagged. The Asia-Pacific session features second-tier data like Australia's leading index and Japan's all-activity index. A 2nd update of the Premium Insights will be released at arppox 19:30 EST, 23:30 GMT.

The Guardian reported that German and French leaders have agreed to boost the EFSF to 2 trillion euros using leverage as part of a comprehensive plan to manage the sovereign crisis. Markets cheered the news as the euro erased earlier losses and risk assets surged. The S&P 500 closed up 2% to 1225 the highest close since Aug 3.

Markets continued to be volatile after the close as Moodys downgraded Spain by two notches. A one notch cut was expected but this move brings them one level lower than S&P and Fitch. Also weighing was an earnings miss from Apple the first time below the consensus in 8 years.

The pound slumped on a gloomy speech from BOE leader King who said time is running out to fix the world economic crisis and that it may inflict pain on everyone in the UK.

Bernanke also spoke Tuesday but he avoided talking about the current economic outlook. Instead, he focused on the future of monetary policy saying transparency and communication will continue to improve.

5 out of 9 trades hit all targets in today's Premium Intermarket Insights, 2 are working and 2 stopped out. Direct Access here:

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Asia-Pacific Preview

At 2230 GMT, the MI/Westpac leading index will be released. The Aug report showed 0.5% increases and there is no consensus for this release. At 0430 GMT, Japans all-industry activity index is expected to decline 0.4% after a 0.4% rise in the prior month. Both of these releases will be overlooked as traders continue to focus on Europe and corporate earnings.

We're adding the latest Daily EURUSD chart as well as the analysis on 1 month volatility http://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=523

Our latest Intermarket Insights are up; US Sep PPI came in at a stronger than expected 0.8% (exp 0.2%) and Goldman Sachs showed a bigger than expected Q3 loss, while undershooting on revenues. But risk aversion has stabilized for now. Click for direct access: here http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=523 Non-members can click on here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

UK Consumer Inflation at three year high; German and Eurozone ZEW index disappoint. Market turns to PPI and TIC long term purchases. Premium Insights due before the US opening bell. Bernanke & King due to speak at 1:15 pm and 1:30 pm EST respectively.

USD remains bid in the ongoing session. As it has become the norm during times of broad risk aversion, the greenback is stronger across the board with the exception of JPY. All major equity indices are in the red.

In the UK, consumer inflation pushed up higher yet again. Annual CPI in September rose to 5.2% from 4.5% in August. Core CPI rose to 3.3% from 3.1%. Higher food, energy and transportation costs contributed to the increase. Given the deteriorating conditions of the economy it did not surprise that the strong CPI print failed to support GBP that which fell to 1.5695 against USD after the initial spike higher to 1.5785.

Today's disappointing European data intensified risk aversion that reappeared yesterday and pushed EURUSD as low as 1.3656. German ZEW economic sentiment survey continued its gradual nine months long decline to -48.3 from -43.3 in October, a level not seen since 11/2008. Current conditions component fell to 38.4 from 43.6.

Eurozone ZEW index fell to -51.2 from -44.6.

The New York session will bring September PPI at 8:30 am ET that is expected to tick up to 0.2% from 0% in August which translates to annual rise of 2.4% from previous 2.5%.

August net TIC long term purchases are due at 9:00 am and are expected higher at USD 27.8 bln from previous USD 9.5 bln. While the jump from 9.5 bln to nearly 28 bln may seem rather large, from a longer term perspective are capital inflows still below levels seen over the past few years.

Traders should also note speeches by Fed Chairman Bernanke at 1:15 pm and BOE Governor Mervyn King at 1:30 pm.

Germanys ZEW Current Situation index dipped to a 15-month low in October at 38.4 from 43.6, while the ZEW Expectations Index deteriorated to -48.3 from -43.3, its worst level since November 2008. The figures are in line with the September 21 charts, calling for a contraction in Germany (see first chart on left) http://ashraflaidi.com/articles/fed-twist-ecb-turn-euro-shouts.asp UK inflation jumped to a 3-year high of 5.2% y/y from 4.5%. As prominent as this figure appears, it could well portend a similar occurrence as in Sep 2008, when the CPI peak, was followed by a sharp decline. USD & JPY are the big winners of the day as risk aversion broadens. There was no surprise that Chinas Q3 GDP slowed to 9.1% from 9.5% at a time when the US is pressuring Beijing to revalue its currency. As a result of the figures, China lowered the CNY vs USD by 0.10 to 6.38, challenging the demands by the US. Premium Trades are due at 7:30 EST, 11:30 GMT

German leaders aimed to lighten the weight of expectations ahead of next weeks EU summit but the euro sank of the non-confident musings. The yen led the FX market while the commodity currencies lagged. Key Chinese economic numbers and the RBA minutes highlight the upcoming session. Latest Premium Trades still working for EURUSD, EURJPY, EURGBP and silver.

European leaders, as if suddenly grasping the consequences of pledges made a week ago, aimed to scale back hopes of a decisive solution to the Eurozone crisis at the Oct. 23 EU summit.

A Merkel spokesman said an agreement will be reached on package of measures but that dreams everything will be resolved will not be fulfilled. Fin Min Schauble added that a permanent solution to the debt crisis is unlikely to come out of the summit.

The effect was a reversal of virtually all of the optimistic market moves from Friday. Technically, a number of outside reversals have appeared on the daily charts. Notably in EUR/USD, USD/CAD and the S&P 500.

Other economic news was mixed as the US Empire state manufacturing index climbed to -8.5 from -8.8 but fell short of the -4 consensus. Industrial production was in line with estimates at +0.2%.

A portion of the market is focused on corporate earnings and softness at Wells Fargo and, after the US close, IBM.

Earnings, economic data and news from Europe will continue to vie for the markets attention for the remainder of the week but most important story will continue to be the European crisis. The market continues to hold lofty expectations for the remaining two weeks of the month and any hints that they will be unfulfilled are a major risk.

Chinese Data and RBA Minutes Upcoming

China will release Q3 GDP at 0200 GMT as well as industrial production and retail sales. Growth of 9.3% y/y is expected. The consensus for industrial production is +13.3% but given the soft import and export numbers last week, we see the risk of disappointment. Retail sales are forecast to rise 17.1% y/y. The GDP data is likely to grab headlines but AUD will be equally vulnerable to industrial production while retail sales will generally be an afterthought.

Much earlier, at 2030, the RBA releases the minutes of the Oct. 4 meeting where rates were left unchanged. The board shifted toward a more dovish stance at the meeting but fell well short of foreshadowing rate cuts before the end of the year. At the moment, officials want to wait and see how the global economy evolves.

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Today's intermarket Insights include EURUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD, EURGBP, ES, gold and silver Click here for direct acess:

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Markets extend gains on optimism that France and Germany will iron out a comprehensive plan to recapitalize European banks. The recapitalization plan is due for next Sunday, while the Troika's final report on Greece is due this Wednesday night, laying out the numbers for as far as funding gaps are concerned. Separately, IMF's Lagarde said emerging markets are being hit by the debt crisis, confirming the fact that the BRICS are no longer adding the fuel to the global economy as was the case this same time last year. Meanwhile, the US Treasury has delayed the release of its semi annual currency manipulation report to Congress, expecting China to show some act of good faith in its currency (publicly) as the Senate's currency bill moves to the House. US industrial production is due later today, expected to show the 5th consecutive monthly figure above zero. The volatile Empire manufacturing survey (NY ISM released by Fed), due today, could also surprise on the upside, by delivering a positive figure (above zero), after 4 straight negative months. PREMIUM SUBSCRIBERS MUST TAKE ANOTHER LOOK at the Weekly EURUSD chart from Oct 12th piece http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=519 Today's Premium Insights are due at approx.6:45 EST, 10:45 GMT, 11:45 BST

Ashraf Laidi