Intraday Market Thoughts Archives

INTERMARKET INSIGHTS is the Premium service offering analysis, charts and signals, to which you can subscribe in this link: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/ Are Premium Insights the same as IMTs ? How to make sure you do NOT miss new Premium trades? Examples?

** PREMIUM INSIGHTS ARE NOT THE SAME AS INTRADAY MARKET THROUGHTS (IMTs) **

Intraday Market Thoughts (IMTs) are FREE previews and reviews released 2-3 times per day, aimed at preparing and summarizing traders of the day's more important events in G10 currencies. They are primarily written by and . Reading these IMTs every day provides a basic but consistent awareness of the fast-moving events in currencies. You can subscribe to these FREE IMTs via the newsletter (upper right corner of the website by registering for a username/password).

** HOW DO I KNOW WHEN PREMIUM INSIGHTS ARE UPDATED ? **

There are 3 ways to do this:

1. Premium subscribers can subscribe to the SMS Premium service. The SMS Premium alerts are messages sent to your mobile phone consisting of an Internet link (url) to the latest post of the Intermarket Premium Insight, which contains Premium trades, charts and technical/fundamental commentary. As long as you have your mobile device with you, this is the BEST WAY to ensure that you do not miss the latest release of the Premium trades (such as being away from your laptop).

EXAMPLE of an SMS ALERT:

AshrafLaidi.com: Latest Premium Trades EURUSD, GBPUSD, Gold http://ashraflaidi.com/p

2. We use the Intraday Market Thoughts (IMTs) to let recipients know that a new set of Premium trades are ready. You can subscribe to the IMTs newsletter FREE at the upper right corner of AshrafLaidi.com and you check on "Intraday Market Thoughts". These IMTs are written by Ashraf and his staff ( and ) – they go out 2-3 times per day to those who subscribe to them. Each time Ashraf completes the premium trades/analysis in the Intermarket Insights, he writes a short IMT alerting subscribers that the new trades are up and ready, including the direct link to the analysis/trades.

3. Each time the Premium Intermarket Insights are updated

** PERFORMANCE, ACCURACY & LIMITS/STOPS **

About 59%-63% of our trades hit all targets.

Our methodology tends to be on the conservative side. Some of our trades may have hit 99% of our target range before being stopped out and therefore will be categorized as stopped out even though they may have hit all but the last 5 or 8 pips of the limit range. Those trades we deem not have hit all targets are those which did not hit the full range of our limits (we use ranges for entry & limits but 1 single stop).

One example was a recent trade "(NEW) Long USDCAD between 1.0040-1.0080, for limit between 1.0110-1.0150, stop at 1.0000". The market went as high as 1.0148 before dropping back to 1.0040. If the market drops all the way back to 1.0000, then the trade will be deemed stopped out even though those who chose to take profit in the mid-range of our Limit (1.0110-1.0150) have exited at a profit. So in this case, we call this a trade a failure, and include in our losing trades.

Here is ANOTHER EXAMPLE: say we have a limit/target on short gold at 1720-1710 and gold drops from say 1750 to only as low as 1713 before rebounding to hit our stop, we would consider that trade to have been stopped out although it hit more than half of the range in our limit/range ie it did not go all the way to 1710. Therefore, such trade would go to our losing trades, while many may have used this as a winning trade had they set their targets between 1720 and 1713.

Due to the strict approach used, we judge some trades to have been stopped out when they may have in fact hit targets for several traders.

AL

German confidence deteriorates; SNB bulletin; WTI and periphery yields. Focus turns to Canadian consumer inflation.4 new charts & 10 new trades added in Thursday nights Premium Insights, including GBPJPY, EURJPY & EURUSD. See more below.

The USD rally that started on the back of Moody's downgrade of 15 global banks continues against commodity dollars that broke yesterday's lows but stalled against the rest of the majors. European equities are trading between -0.1% and -0.6%.

German IFO business climate declined slightly more than expected in June to 105.3 from 106.9 which is the lowest print since 03/2010 and the expectations component fell to 97.3 from 100.8. The silver lining of the report is the current conditions indicator that unexpectedly rose to 113.9 after a sharp fall in May to 113.3.

The uncertainty surrounding the Eurozone is impacting the German economy and deteriorating data (PMIs, ZEW, IFO) prove that Germany is not immune to the ongoing crises. This increases the risk that the economy will come to a halt and also adds pressure on the ECB to cut rates below current 1%. The next ECB meeting is on July 5th. EURUSD fell to 1.2520 but regained 1.2555 a few hours later.

The SNB quarterly bulletin did not reveal anything surprising and only reiterated comments about defending the Franc cap and not tolerating further appreciation. EURCHF continues to trade only a few points above the 1.20 floor.

The economic calendar is limited to Canadian CPI that is expected to ease to 0.1% from 0.4% m/m and to 1.5% from 2.0% y/y. Core CPI is seen at 0.3% from 0.4%.

WTI erased some of its previous losses as it rose from 8 month low at 77.53 to current 78.65. Spanish 10 year yield continues to decline and trades around 6.53% while the Italian bond yields 5.79%.

3 new charts on yen crosses, 1 chart on latest US business surveys and 10 new trades in the latest Premium Insights. Click here for today's full Premium Insights titled "Focusing on Yen Crosses" http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=658 Non subscribers please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

A sharp decline in manufacturing sentiment combined with broad financial sector downgrades to spark sharp selloffs in risk assets. The US dollar was a strong outperformer while the Australian dollar lagged. Asia-Pacific trading doesnt feature any notable releases. 10 new trades added in Thursday nights Premium Insights, including GBPJPY, EURJPY & EURUSD. See more below.

The US economy continues to show signs of faltering. On Thursday, the Philly Fed plunged to -16.6 from -5.8. The regional manufacturing survey was expected to improve to 0.0 but it was the worst reading since Aug 2011 and the second-worse since the crisis. The sub-indexes were mixed as employment improved slightly while new orders plunged.

Other economic news had a smaller impact including a 0.3% rise in May leading indicators compared to +0.1% expected. The house price index was slightly stronger than forecast while existing home sales were slightly softer. Initial jobless claims were at 387K compared to 383K expected.

Market sentiment deteriorated on rumors of a round of downgrades of the worlds largest banks by Moodys. The rumors were later confirmed as 15 of the largest financials in the world were lowered 1-to-3 notches. The euro fell as low as 1.2530.

The Canadian dollar weakened as retail sales ex-autos fell 0.3% compared to a 0.3% rise expected.

The S&P 500 was hit hard, falling 2.2% to 1325 as Goldman Sachs recommended shorts due to Fed inaction. Oil fell $3 to the lowest since October.

Early Asia-Pacific trading as been muted as risk trades attempt to regain some type of footing. The calendar is absent any meaningful economic data.

10 new trades in the latest Premium Insights with 3 charts in Yen Crosses. Click here for today's full Premium Insights titled "Focusing on Yen Crosses" http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=658 Non subscribers please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

-AB

Both of yesterdays longs in USDJPY proved on target, except for 1 of the 2 trades was 7 pips away from the final target. We are adding one more new Long to the remaining trade, but with a more aggressive upside target. Click here for today's full Premium Insights titled "Focusing on Yen Crosses" http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=658 Non subscribers please click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

German and Eurozone PMIs weak; UK retail sales rose; Spanish auction. The NY session will bring jobless claims; markit manufacturing PMI; Philly FED and existing home sales. 1 of 2 EURJPY longs hit all targets, so did USDCAD. 8 trades in progress. In these Insights, Ashaf gives the argument for his latest bias on USDJPY. See more below.

The USD is slightly weaker against most currencies except JPY in the ongoing session and major European equity indices are losing about 0.5%.

German manufacturing PMI declined further in June to 44.7 from previous 45.2 and reached a three year low while services PMI fell to a seven month low at 50.3 from 51.8. New business intakes decreased, business outlook dropped into negative territory for the first time in 2012 and manufacturing private employment fell at the fastest rate since 1/2010.

The result for the whole Eurozone was not much better as manufacturing PMI worsened to 44.8 from 45.1 which is 36 month low and services sector slowed the rate of its decline as PMI rose marginally to 46.8 from 46.7. EURUSD dipped back to 2643 before bouncing back to 1.2687.

UK retail sales bounced back sharply in May as they grew 1.4% from April's -2.4%. However, this optimistic result is not likely to change the easing outlook as the BOE is seen extending the asset purchase program by GBP 50 bln at its July meeting. GBPUSD trades around 1.5716.

Spain reached a full take up again as it sold bonds totaling EUR 2.22 bln vs. 1-2 bln target. Cover improved but all average yields rose. Spanish 10 year yields eased from 6.76% session high to current 6.53%.

WTI broke below the 80 mark for the first time since October 2011 and hit 79.93. It erased a part of the loss and currently trades around 80.50.

The US session starts at 8:30 am ET with jobless claims that are seen lower this week at 381K from 386K followed by Markit manufacturing PMI at 9:00 am which is expected to slow in June to 53.4 from 54.0.

Philly FED index and existing home sales are due at 10:00 am and they are anticipated to rise to 0.7 in June from -5.8 and slow to 4.58M from 4.62M respectively. The last Philly Fed survey had unexpectedly tumbled to -5.8 from 8.50, which was the first negative reading since September--when Optn Twist was started.

CAD traders should note May retail sales that are due at 8:30 am ET and are seen lower at 0.2% from 0.4% (core sales higher at 0.3% from 0.1%) and the BOC governor Mark Carney's speech that starts at 11:45 am ET.

One of yesterdays two EURJPY longs hit all targets, USDCAD long hit all targets, while both EURUSD and USDJPY are in progress as is the gold long. Yesterdays Premium Insights PREMIUM INTERMARKET INSIGHTS were issued 20 mins before the Fed decision and are in progress. USDJPY & EURJPY are brought back. Click here for direct access to today's trades. http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/ access/?a=657 Non subscribers can click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01

The Fed unveiled a second Operation Twist, setting off a flurry of volatility but no firm direction. On the day, the euro was the top performer while the yen lagged. The highlight of Asia-Pacific trading is the China HSBC manufacturing PMI. USDJPY and EURJPY were added to today's Premium Insights. See more below.

The Fed downgraded growth forecasts and unveiled another round of Operation Twist at Wednesdays meeting. The market was simultaneously pleased by the easing but frightened by the growth downgrade. The FOMC extended Twist by $267 billion using its remaining short-term notes to buy maturities longer than 6 years. The program is now slated to wrap up in June.

At the same time, the Fed slashed its growth estimate for 2012 to 1.9-2.4%, far below the 2.4-2.9% forecast released in April. Unemploymet estimates were hiked and the 2013 and 2014 growth forecasts were also cut.

Bernanke clearly left the door open for QE3 as soon as August 1 in his press conference. "We still do have considerable scope to do more and we are prepared to do more, he said.

The market was left in a whipsaw as EUR/USD dropped to 1.2640 and then jumped a full cent. Afterwards, the gyrations continued before the euro settled near 1.2680. Other currencies were similarly volatile but eventually settled at near-unchanged levels.

Going forward, its clear that the Fed is one or two soft employment reports from QE3. This should put a floor under risk assets and gold.

Early in Asia-Pacific trading, the New Zealand dollar surged above 0.8000 for the first time since early May after a tremendously strong Q1 GDP report. The economy grew 2.4% y/y, blowing away the 1.3% consensus. The report means a rate cut this year is unlikely.

At 0230 GMT, HSBC releases the flash estimate for the June China manufacturing PMI. This is a key data point but there is no consensus forecast. The previous reading was 48.4 and the market is likely positioned for something similar.

Today's PREMIUM INTERMARKET INSIGHTS were issued 20 mins before the Fed decision and are in progress. USDJPY & EURJPY are brought back. Click here for direct access to today's trades. http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=657 Non subscribers can click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01

We expect the Fed to use todays FOMC statement to communicate the extension of Operation Twist, likely to be underway in July or August but may last for no more than 2-3 months. Outright QE, or QE3 is out of the question as the Fed has already spelled out the diminishing returns of such operation as well as its opposition to further balance sheet expansion. We are adding USDJPY and EURJPY to the LATEST PREMIUM INTERMARKET INSIGHTS which are now out. Click here for direct access to todays trades. http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=657 Non subscribers can click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

AL

GBP jumps on surprisingly tight MPC minutes; UK claimant count rises but unemployment stays steady; German PPI and Swiss ZEW dropped. Market turns to FOMC statement, projections and press conference. The 2nd Aussie long hit all targets, while 1 gold long was stopped out. See rest of details below.

USD trades slightly weaker across the board in the ongoing session. European equities trade between -0.5% and +0.1%.

BoEs MPC minutes from June 7th meeting showed tighter than expected 5-4 vote against additional QE. Three members (King, Miles and Posen) voted for extra GBP 50 bln and Paul Fisher wanted to boost easing by GBP 25 bln. All members voted for rates to remain at 0.5%.

Weighing on GBP was the unexpected increase in UK jobless claims, which rose 8.1K in May from previous -12.7K implying that the labor market started to be adversely impacted by the ongoing tensions. However, the claimant count rate remained steady at 4.9% and the ILO unemployment rate stayed at 8.2%.

In other news, German PPI dropped 0.3% in May from +0.2% m/m and eased to 2.1% from previous 2.4% y/y and Swiss ZEW economic expectations dropped dramatically to -43.4 in June from -4 in May. Spanish 10 year yield eased a bit from 7.05% to current 6.92% and the Italian 10 year yield declined from 5.94% to current 5.83%. EURUSD continues to trade around 1.27.

Onto the FOMC Decision

The key event for today's NY session will be the FOMC meeting. The FOMC will release its statement at 12:30 am ET (5:30 pm BST) along with its rate decision (fed funds will remain below 0.25%). FED's economic projections are due at 2:00 pm ET and the press conference will start at 2:15 ET pm.

An extension of the ending operation twist seems to be the most likely outcome. Equity markets could be disappointed as this would not be an outright QE but the USD could still weaken as markets could, in light of recent data deterioration, still expect new QE in the coming months.

WE DO NOT AGREE WITH THE LATEST POLL BY the Securities Industry & Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) showing 65% of respondents expecting QE3 to be announced in todays meeting, with 17% expecting Operation Twist to be announced today to go into effect later this summer. If anything, we expect the extension of Operation Twist o be announced todaym, to go into effect mid-summer until September or October.

After the end of the session, market will focus on the release of New Zealand Q1 GDP at 6:45 pm that is expected to rise 0.4% from 0.3% q/q but slow to 1.3% from 1.8% y/y.

The 2nd of AUDUSD longs hit all targets, while the 2nd of GBPUSD longs is 5 pips away from hitting all targets. 1 gold long was stopped out while the other remains in progress. USDCAD long now filled and in progress. Both EURUSD longs & Crude longs were stopped out. For direct Access to these trades, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=647 Non subscribers can join in here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

Scattered reports about a European plan to buy periphery bonds boosted the euro before it slipped back lower on vague denials. On the day, the euro was the top-performer while the USD lagged ahead of Wednesdays FOMC decision. The Asia-Pacific session features Japanese trade figures and secondary data from Australia. See which of the 5 trades in the Premium Intermarket Insights remain in progress.

The Guardian reported that Germany was set to allow the ESM/EFSF to buy the debt of Italy, Spain and other periphery countries. The euro rallied to 1.2725 on the report but skidded back to 1.2680 when German officials denied it. Italian leader Monti later issued a second denial.

The market remains optimistic, however, because world leaders at the G20 summit have expressed a new found optimism about the European situation likely because of assurances from Germany that some type of plan is coming together.

Other ideas likely being discussed are eurobills and a European Redemption Fund. The move toward more integration has likely been cleared the skeptics in Merkels party and some type of framework could be announced at the EU summit at the end of the month.

Economic data was light ahead of the FOMC decision but a dovish-toned article in the WSJ weighed on the dollar. May housing starts fell 4.8%, nearly wiping out a 5.4% rise in April. Greek politicians are likely to announce a coalition framework on Wednesday.

Early in Asia, New Zealands first quarter current account deficit was 4.8% of GDP compared to 4.6% expected, weighing on NZD.

At 2350 GMT, the Bank of Japan publishes the minutes of the May 23 decision, where no action was taken.

At the same time, Japan releases May trade data. Exports are expected up 9.3% y/y and imports are forecast to be higher by 2.9%. The total trade balance is expected to remain in a 561.1 billion yen deficit.

The conference board and Westpac leading indexes for Australia are due at midnight and 0030 GMT, respectively. At 0430 GMT is Japans all-industry activity index for April is expected to rise 0.1% after a 0.3% climb in March.

The 2nd of AUDUSD longs is 15 pips from hitting all targets, with the 1st already done so earlier in the US session. 1 of 2 GBPUSD longs hit all targets, with the 2d half a cent away. USDCAD long now filled and in progress. 2 Gold longs are in progress, both EURUSD longs & Crude longs were stopped out. For direct Access to these trades, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=647 Non subscribers can join in here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

-AB

Ashraf on FT Video about Liquidity, Volatility & Macro

Ashraf explains to the Financial Times editor John Authers why (and how) metrics of liquidity & credit stability in US & European banks remain stable, while warning about the turn in US business surveys as well as the weakness in the BRICS. Watch here: http://video.ft.com/v/1696214548001/Volatility-vanished

DON'T FORGET Ashraf's webinar at 17:30 BST (London time) See previous IMTs

Greek coalition; G20 statement; UK CPI eases further; German and Eurozone ZEW drop; Spanish auction. Market turns to housing market data and Canadian wholesale sales. EURUSD & GBPUSD remain well underpinned atop their 2-week trendline supports. 1 of the 2 AUDUSD longs hit all targets, while EURUSD longs were stopped out. See the rest of the Premium Insights below.

USD eases on reports that a Greek coalition among ND, PASOK and Democratic Left parties could be formed today, and also by the G20 statement that implies continued European banking integration and tighter fiscal rules to fight the debt crisis. Market positioning ahead of tomorrow's FOMC statement also plays a role.

GBP initially sold off but quickly recovered against the USD after UK CPI eased further in May to 2.8% from 3.0% y/y. The core figure rose to 2.2% from previous 2.1%. This is the lowest print in over two years and also the first time since 1996 that May monthly CPI fell. Falling fuel prices contributed to the fall. EURGBP pushed higher to 0.8055.

EURUSD saw a similar price action as cable. It dropped to 1.2570 on disappointing ZEW results but within two hours regained all losses and currently trades above 1.2610. German ZEW economic sentiment survey for June dropped 27.7 points to -16.9 from previous 10.8 which is the sharpest fall since 10/1998. Worsening banking sector in Spain and insecurity regarding Greek election contributed to the decline. Current situation sub index declined to 33.2 from 44.1. Economic sentiment index for the Eurozone dropped to -20.1 from previous -2.4.

Spain was able to reach a full take up as it told bonds totaling EUR 3.039 bln vs. EUR 3 bln target. Bid to cover improved but average yields rose rapidly. In case of 12 month bill, the yield reached the highest level since euro inception (5.074% vs. previous 2.985%).

The US session starts at 8:30 am ET with building permits that are seen higher in May at 730K from previous 715K and housing starts that are expected to rise to 720K from 717K. Today also marks the first day of the FOMC meeting.

Canadian wholesale sales that are due at the same time are seen steady in April at 0.4%.

1 of 2 AUDUSD longs hit all targets; Both EURUSD longs & Crude longs were stopped out. Both GBPUSD longs are in progress; USDCAD not yet filled; Gold nearing 1635 target, while other gold long also remains in progress. For direct Access to these trades, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=647 Non subscribers can join in here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

In this afternoon's webinar, Ashraf will explain why he maintained a risk-on bias (favouring the euro) late last week going into Sundays Greece elections when most pundits were bracing for panic and sharp downside. He will also preview Wednesdays FOMC statement, as well as cover underlying technicals in FX, S&P500, FTSE100 & gold. Webinar starts at 12:30 EST (17:30 British Summer Time) REGISTER HERE: https://www4.gotomeeting.com/register/333942543

You have to wonder what would have happened to the euro if New Democracy had lost the Greek election. Early euro gains were reversed on Monday but the risk-sensitive Australian dollar continued higher to lead the market. The RBA minutes are the highlight of the Asia-Pacific session. Details on Mondays Premium Insights are below, as well as the link to Ashrafs Tuesday webinar previewing the FOMC statement.

Euro worries emerged after Spanish 10-year yields hit fresh cycle highs at 7.28%. The extreme borrowing costs suggest a bailout is increasingly likely, if not inevitable. European leaders are increasingly warming to eurobonds or eurobills but the timeline is likely too long to calm the current periphery fears.

US and some European officials appear to be willing to compromise with the new Greek leadership. A likely outcome is a two-year extension of austerity program deadlines. Comments from Merkel suggested a continued hard line.

An early leak of the G20 communique says European leaders have agreed to take all necessary policy measures to end the crisis.

* * * LINK TO ASHRAF'S TUESDAY WEBINAR * * *

https://www4.gotomeeting.com/register/333942543

Economic data was light but the NAHB home builder index was at +29 compared to +28 expected. The S&P 500 climbed 0.1% to 1345.

The Asia-Pacific session is light but at 0130 GMT, the minutes of the June 5 meeting where the RBA lowered rates 25 basis points to 3.50% will be released. That statement included talk about further weakening in European and a slowdown in China. More details will be welcome.

RBA Governor Stevens most-recent comments focused on the grumpiness of consumers and weak productivity.

Monday mornings Premium Insights saw both EURUSD and US crude stopped out, while positions on AUDUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD and Gold remain in progress. DIRECT ACCESS TO these trades is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/acces/?a=647 NONsubscribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01

-AB

In a 2-part interview, Ashraf explains why EURUSD is expected to extend its gains as part of the corrective bounce after Greece's New Democracy won nearly 30% of the votes. Ashraf distinguishes outright QE vs. Operation Twist, highlights the shape of EUROIS spread, gauges EURUSD technical and distinguishing PIIGS & BRICs foundation. http://youtu.be/ir7PLvDEFvM

EUro drops over a full cent against USD after Sunday's initial spike as Leftist Syriza says will not join the coalition Govt. New Democracy Party is already attempting to form a coalition to secure remaining IMF tranche; Germany implies flexibility on demanded austerity; Spanish and Italian yields continue to rise. US calendar limited to Canadian international transactions and NAHB housing index. Last nights Premium Insights are out. See more below.

The Eurozone break up catastrophe seems to have been avoided (at least for now) as the pro-bailout New Democracy that won Sunday's Greek election will attempt today to form a coalition with socialist PASOK party that also backs the bailout with its consequences. Party leaders' official meeting is scheduled to begin around 11:00 am ET. The immediate pressure has declined but optimism could quickly disappear if the governing coalition is not formed quickly. EURUSD lost a full cent as it dropped to 1.2619 and currently trades around 1.2630.

G20 meeting starts today in Mexico and continues tomorrow. The pressure will be on the European members to provide definite solutions for the European crisis. Only then can the rest of the members start preparing stimulus plan that would provide both debt reducing and pro-growth measures.

Germany seems to have softened its stance on austerity plan imposed on Athens as it implied that it is willing to renegotiate the time frame of the economic reforms implementation that partially contributed to 22.6% unemployment rate and eight quarters of declining GDP. If confirmed, such a step could ease the G20 negotiations.

Debt markets are still anxious as the Spanish 10 year yield continues to soar and trades around 7.12% while the Italian counterpart rose to 6.05%.

Data reports for the US session are limited to Canadian international securities transactions due at 8:30 am ET that are seen higher in April at CAD 3.41 bln from previous CAD -2.08 bln followed by NAHB housing market index at 10:00 am that is expected to decline marginally to 28 in June from May's 29.

Our latest Premium Insights (updated last night) on EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, USDCAD & Gold, & Crude Oil. DIRECT ACCESS TO these trades is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/acces/?a=647 NONsubscribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01

As we mentioned in our Wednesday edition of the Premium Insights, EURUSD surpassed the $1.27 level --There was no market-negative outcome from Greece and markets (FX and equities) are all trading "risk-on" as titled in that piece. The lack of any unfavourable event detracts attention of Central banks of worrying about: 1) delivering "liquidity" solutions (such as currency swaps) and places Greece back onto worrying about securing its 1bn tranche, which was withheld after May's inconclusive elections, and; 2) covering its 3.9 bn interest payment to the ECB due in August. DOES THIS MEAN we extend our RIsk-On Positioning? Find out our latest Premium Insights on EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPUSD, Gold, & Crude Oil. DIRECT ACCESS TO these trades is found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=647 NONsubscribers can join here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01

AL

Euro rallied above 1.27 at the open in Asia after New Democracy captured the Greek election. The euro is higher by more than a full cent to start the week with risk trades broadly higher as market breathes a sigh of relief. Ashraf argued back on Wednesday why he was taking a "Maintaining Risk-on" positioning in the latest Premium Insights. All 4 EURUSD & GBPUSD longs hit all targets, including 1.2690. with USDCAD longs in progress. Ashraf will update a post-Election edition of Premium Insights w/in the next 1 hr.

Late tallies show New Democracy winning nearly 30% of the vote, compared to 26% for Syriza. The next move will be to form a collation government which is likely to be made up of New Democracy and third-place Pasok, who would have 162 seats in Greek parliament a comfortable margin above the 150 needed for a majority.

Foreign leaders congratulated New Democracy leader Samaras on the result but it will be a rocky road from his first day in office. The government is behind on reform efforts and the privatization schedule laid out in the bailout agreement. A report cited an EU official saying the upcoming review of the program will be difficult.

EUR/USD sprang to 1.27 at the open and has continued higher to 1.2740. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are trading at 5-week highs.

In French parliamentary elections it was the anti-austerity Socialist party led by Francois Hollande that won. The party took an absolute majority, giving Hollande a sweeping mandate and near-complete dominance of French politics.

The market will continue to digest the Greek election results as data trickles out of the Asia-Pacific region. Early data on New Zealand consumer confidence was at a 1-year low while the May services PMI ticked higher.

At 0130 GMT, the focus shifts to May data on Chinese property prices. A significant drop could undermine the Greek optimism. Later, data on Australian vehicle sales and Japanese department stores sales will likely be cast aside.

Ashrafs Wednesday Premium Intermarket Insights called for maintaining risk on bias. Most Premium Trades have hit all targets. Stay tuned for a new edition, due to be updated shortly. Get a 1week trial here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01

-AB