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EU finance ministers meeting under way; German retail sales declined; Eurozone CPI eased; Swiss KOF rose and French consumer spending solid. Focus turns to core PCE, personal income and spending, Canadian GDP and UOM consumer confidence. Our Premium Intermarket Insights look at the latest on the Euros attempt at the Golden Cross, trades on EURUSD, EURJPY, US Crude, and charts on BRICs vs S&P500. http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=621

The greenback trades virtually unchanged in the ongoing session. European equity indices are higher by about 0.9% and the relative strength winners are NZD followed by GBP.

The meeting of EU finance ministers gets under way today in Denmark and continues tomorrow. The key decision is whether the financial firewall size will be increased. Anything less than combining EFSF (EUR 240 bln) with ESM (EUR 500 bln) to reach EUR 740 bln would be seen as a disappointment. Austrian finance minister Maria Fekter has already suggested that the Eurogroup will agree on size above EUR 800 bln.

Despite improving labor market in Germany, February retail sales surprised to the downside declining -1.1% from -1.2% with the annual result unchanged at 1.7%. However, retail sales are often revised and are generally volatile. EURUSD fell on the news to 1.3323 but quickly recovered back to around 1.3350.

On the data front we learned that the first estimate of Eurozone CPI has eased to 2.6% from 2.7% y/y, Swiss KOF economic barometer rose in March to 0.08 from -0.11 and French consumer spending increased 3% in February from -0.4%. This is the largest rebound in over 15 years and is attributed to higher energy consumption and purchases of winter clothes due to unusually cold temperatures.

The NY session starts at 8:30 am ET with February core PCE that is seen at 0.1% from 0.2% m/m and steady at 1.9% on annual basis. Personal income and personal spending are anticipated higher at 0.4% from 0.3% and 0.6% from 0.2% respectively.

Final UoM consumer confidence is due at 9:55 am and upward revision to 74.8 from 74.3 is expected.

Canadian GDP is due at 8:30 am and it is seen to slow in January to 0.1% from 0.4% m/m (1.7% from 1.8% y/y).

Concerns about Italy and Portugal weighed on the euro while data continues to paint a mixed picture of the US. On the day, JPY was the top performer while AUD lagged but in the latter part of the US session risk off trades pared losses. In Asia, Japan releases tier 1 data on employment, inflation and industrial production. Thursday's Premium Intermarket Insights look at the latest on the Euros attempt at the Golden Cross, trades on EURUSD, EURJPY, US Crude, and charts on BRICs vs S&P500. http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=621

EUR/USD slumped to 1.3251 early in US trading but rebounded above 1.33 at the end of the session. Early weakness came on concern about Italian debt as yields rose to a one-month high. Portugals central bank also revised down its GDP estimate to a 3.4% contraction versus 3.1% previously.

The strength of the US recovery also remains a concern with initial jobless claims at 359K compared to 355K expected, the prior weeks report was also revised 16K higher to 348K. US Q4 GDP was unrevised at +3.0%.

M&A related to Gaz de France purchases in the UK was reported to underpin broad GBP strength.

Bernanke wrapped up his lecture series, saying there is a reasonable chance the US could return to 3% growth in the long term. That stood in contract to the Feds Plosser who forecast 3% growth this year and next.

A rebound in US stocks late in the day helped risk sentiment, as did comments from Germanys Schaeuble who said he sees a firewall of around 800 billion euros.

Asia-Pacific Preview

Japan is the major focus as it closes out its fiscal year with a deluge of data. It begins at 2330 with February jobless data. The unemployment rate is expected to steady at 4.6%. At the same time, the national CPI is expected to be flat year-over-year in February and to fall 0.9% excluding food and energy. At 2350 GMT, preliminary February industrial production is expected to rise 1.3%. Later, data on Australian home sales and Japanese housing starts will also hit the wires.

Unlike in 2010 and 2011 when industrialized nations looked on to BRICs economies for sustaining their exports and boosting sentiment in their equity markets, 2012 has shown some resilience in the US, Europe and Japan. S&P500, Dow-30, Dax-30, FTSE-100 and Nikkei-225 are up 12%, 7%, 17%, 3% and 19% year-to-date respectively, compared to Brazils Bovespa, Russias Micex, Indias Sensex and Chinas Shanghai Composite, which are up 13%, 7%, 10% and 2%. Zooming in on the performance since their peak of 2 weeks ago, all four BRICs indices are down 7%. Find out more & th erelation w/ G10 equities as well as the LATETS PREMIUM INTERMARKET TRADES http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=621

German labor market improved; all Eurozone confidence measures declined; UK house prices dropped and mortgage approvals declined; Italian auction. Market turns to final Q4 GDP, jobless claims; Bernanke and Lockhart speeches. EURUSD testing the trendline support from the Mar 15 low. New Premium Intermarket Insights are due befoe the end of the London session.

The USD is higher across the board in the ongoing session. Major European equity indices are lower by around 1%. The relative strength winner is JPY, NZD is the weakest.

EURUSD rose briefly on a report that German unemployment decreased by 18K in March from -3K in February. The unemployment rate also ticked lower to 6.7% from 6.8%. However, sellers emerged around 1.3340 and sent the pair lower to 1.3271. Risk off sentiment combined with month end repositioning seems to be controlling the market.

All Eurozone reports disappointed today. Business climate fell to -0.30 in March from February's -0.16, consumer confidence slipped to -19.1 from -19 and economic sentiment ticked lower to 94.4 from 94.5, which is the first decline since December.

UK housing data did not provide many reasons for optimism either as nationwide house prices fell 1% in March from 0.4% (-0.9% from 0.9% y/y) and February mortgage approvals dropped to 49K from 57.9K to the lowest level since June 2011.

On a positive note, Italy had another successful bond auction. It reached a full take up as it sold 2017 and 2022 bonds worth of EUR 5.75 bln. Both average yields declined and cover improved.

The US session kicks off at 8:30 am ET with the final Q4 GDP that is anticipated unchanged at 3% y/y. The rest of the data is also seen steady - GDP price index at 0.9%, core PCE at 1.3% and personal consumption at 2.1%. Jobless claims that are due at the same time are expected to rise slightly to 351K from last week's 348K.

Market volatility could increase at 12:15 pm when Atlanta FED president and FOMC member Dennis Lockhart delivers a speech on European crisis. FED chairman Bernanke will give his fourth and last lecture at the George Washington University at 12:45 pm.

Worries about the strength of the US recovery and Spanish finances weighed on the euro and risk currencies in US trading. On the day, the yen was the best performer while the Australian dollar lagged. Japanese retail sales are the top release in Asia.

US durable goods orders grew 2.2% in February, slower than the +3.0% consensus estimate. January orders were also revised down slightly and core orders fell short of expectations. The most-recent US data has been consistently on the soft side and talk about warm-weather effects related to upside surprises early in the winter is growing.

Mixed reports on the EU firewall thats expected to be unveiled on Friday have the market confused. An EU draft report said the fund will be increased to 940 billion euros until mid-2013 but a separate report said the effective lending capacity will be only 700 billion euros.

Concerns are growing that Spain will need to tap bailout fund after the finance minister said first quarter GDP will be close to the 0.3% contraction in Q42011. Widely circulated research reports are also suggesting that Spain will need help to meet its obligations.

EUR/USD fell to 1.3276 from 1.333 in the first half of US trading but clawed most of the losses back as stocks regained some ground. The S&P 500 closed down 0.5% to 1405.

The Australian dollar was weak as talk circulated about a rate cut next week. We highly doubt that will be the case with all 26 economists surveyed by Bloomberg forecasting no change.

Asia-Pacific Preview

There is also talk that Japan will take further easing measures but that may depend on the economy. A clue will come at 2350 GMT (00:50 London Time) when February retail sales are released. The Consensus is for a flat reading after a 4.1% rise in January.

In our latest Premium Trades, EURUSD longs were stopped out at 13290 and 1.3310. both AUDUSD shorts are done, USDCAD shorts remain progress,1 of the 2 GBPJPY longs is filled & in progress, 1 of the 2 SILV shorts is filled & in progresss, the other is stopped out. The gold sort is stopped out at 1690. For DIRECT ACCESS to these Pemium Trades & charts, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=620

Ashraf on AlArabiya earlier today, with English synopsis provided below the clip. Discussing Yen & new fiscal year, BRICs & outlook for QE3. http://youtu.be/qc8EQ7l9IgE

Possibility of strategic oil reserves release; UK GDP revised lower; UK current account deficit narrows; French GDP revised lower; solid Italian auction. Market turns to durable goods orders and oil inventories. The latest status on those Premium trades is found below.

The greenback is mixed in the ongoing session. It is weaker against EUR and CHF, unchanged against commodity dollars and stronger against JPY. European equities are slightly in the red, losing about 0.15%. EUR is the strongest while AUD lags.

Reuters reports that France, UK and the US are discussing the possibility of releasing strategic oil reserves to fight high fuel prices which could choke economic growth. The release could come in matter of weeks after WTI reached $110 and brent $127.50 in recent days, mainly due to Iran sanctions and other geopolitical tensions.

Slowing UK economy was confirmed today when the final Q4 GDP was revised lower to -0.3% from -0.2% q/q and to 0.5% from 0.7% y/y. A downward revision of services output, especially from the financial and the insurance business, to -0.1% from 0% is blamed for the fall. Disposable income declined 1.2%, yet surprisingly, the household consumption rose 0.4% which is the first increase in 6 quarters suggesting stable confidence. UK current account deficit narrowed in Q4 to GBP -8.45 bln from GBP 10.51 bln in line with expectations.

In other news: the final print of French Q4 GDP showed a revision lower to 1.3% from the initial estimate of 1.4% on annual basis and German preliminary CPI is due later today as the results are still being collected.

Italy reached a full take up as it sold EUR 8.5 bln worth of 6 month T bill. The average yield declined to 1.119% from 1.202% and cover improved to 1.5 from 1.36.

The US session will bring durable goods orders at 8:30 am that are expected to increase by 3% in February from previous -3.7% (core orders to rise 1.6% from -3%).

Crude oil inventories are due at 10:30 am and are seen higher at 2.8M barrels from previous -1.2M.

In our latest Premium Trades, EURUSD longs are still holding, both AUDUSD shorts are done, USDCAD shorts remain progress,1 of the 2 GBPJPY longs is filled & in progress, 1 of the 2 SILV shorts is filled & in progresss, the other is stopped out. The gold sort is stopped out at 1690. For DIRECT ACCESS to these Pemium Trades & charts, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=620

Fed Chair Bernanke continues to sound like a leader who is prepared to fire up the printing press. Tuesdays trading was very quiet with USD leading and AUD lagging. There are no significant data or events in Asia-Pacific trading. The Premium trades from Monday evening are mostly in progressEURUSD, GBPJPY, USDCAD and AUDUSD, as well latest charts on EURUSD Golden Cross and the 84% 4-year effectiveness. See below for more detail.

Bernanke spoke to ABC in an interview saying the sees good news on growth but that the US has a long way to go on the recovery. He said the Fed must be ready to respond to how the economy evoles and that unemployment may not fall much if the economy continues at 2-2.5% growth. The current consensus forecast is for a 2.2% increase in GDP this year.

Bernanke said the Fed was optimistic early in the recovery but now needs to be realistic and needs to be cautions in sustaining it. He believes gas prices are unlikely to stall the recovery but could hurt growth.

Economic data was lukewarm with consumer confidence at 70.2 compared to 70.0 expected. The Richmond Fed slipped to 7 from 20, less than the 18 consensus.

Comments from Rosengren and Fisher showed the divide at the Fed. Fisher forecast 3% growth this year and noted improving growth prospects. Rosengren pointed to risks from fiscal policy and said the jobs picture will not get better unless growth picks up.

EUR/USD was stuck in a tight range between 1.3317-1.3348 for most of the session but inched below the lower band at the close. Its unclear if softer US growth will create a classic risk on trade, or if it will generate dollar selling on heightened QE speculation.

A chart alert on a possible EURUSD Golden Cross as well as global yields vs EURUSD. For DIRECT ACCESS to Today's Premium Trades, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=620 NOn-Subscribers, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

Bernanke-fuelled rally in risk appetite faced resistance in Wednesday Asia. German GfK consumer confidence declined; French consumer confidence rose; German import prices rose; UK CBI sales lower; possible hike in EURCHF floor to 1.35. Market turns to SP Case Shiller index, CB consumer confidence and Richmond FED manufacturing. Mondays Premium trades include GBPJPY, EURUSD, USDCAD and AUDUSD, as well latest chart on EURUSD Golden Cross alert as well as global yields vs EURUSD. See below for detail.

The USD is mixed in the ongoing session. It is weaker against EUR, GBP, CHF and unchanged against the rest of the majors. European equities are higher by about 0.4%.

Throughout the Asian session, markets consolidated sharp USD losses caused by Bernanke's dovish comments. Once London traders got to their desks, they sent USD even lower across the board. However, the buck was able to erase a portion of its losses.

GfK German consumer confidence for April turned lower to 5.9 from 6.0 which is the first decline after six straight months of gradual increases. Record gasoline prices sent the income expectations sub index lower by 7 points to 34.3 which nearly negated last month's increase. Economic expectations were marginally higher and willingness to buy was virtually unchanged. The headline index refers to the following month but the sub indices refer to the current month.

In other news, French consumer confidence rose considerably in February to 87 from 82, German import prices rose 1% in February on higher oil prices and UK CBI realized sales were unchanged in March after previous -2.

Interesting comments came from Swiss economics minister Johann Schneider-Ammann who suggested in yesterday's TV interview that CHF cap could be raised to 1.35 1.40 level. EURCHF has been trading within 100 pip range over the past two months so higher volatility is likely in the days/weeks ahead.

The NY session will bring S&P Case Shiller house price index at 9:00 am which is expected to slow the rate of its decline in January to -3.8% from -4% followed by CB consumer confidence at 10:00 am which is seen slightly lower in March at 70.3 from 70.8.

Richmond FED manufacturing is also due at 10:00 am and it is anticipated lower at 18 in March from February's 20.

FED chairman Bernanke gives his third lecture at the George Washington University at 12:45 pm but this is unlikely to have any impact on the markets.

Mondays Premium trades included a revision in the EURUSD trades as well as on GBPJPY, USDCAD and AUDUSD. A chart alert on a possible EURUSD Golden Cross as well as global yields vs EURUSD. For DIRECT ACCESS to Today's Trades, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=620 NOn-Subscribers, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

We are updating both of EURUSD Premium trades originally posted on Monday evening as those were unfilled by 4 pips before the market took off by over half a cent. Updated Trades are found here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=620

Fed Chair Bernanke started the week by questioning the strength of the recovery. The euro was the top performer while the yen lagged. Asia-Pacific trading does not feature any notable releases. EURUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD are among our Mondays Premium Intermarket Insights.

The US dollar stumbled after Bernanke said the improvement in jobs was somewhat out of synch with the slow-moving recovery. He said further progress may be slow. The tone of the speech reflected skepticism about the economy and willingness to take further action.

The dollar immediately fell after the comments, and gold rebounded to nearly $1700. EUR/USD eventually climbed to the highest levels since February. Stocks cheered the comments, with the S&P 500 hitting the highest since 2008.

Adding to optimism were German endorsements on allowing the EFSF and ESM to run parallel, effectively boosting the European firewall. Draghi also said he continues to see improvements in the eurozone.

Economic data was minimal. The lone US report was pending home sales, which fell 0.5% compared to the +1.0% expected.

TODAY's INTERMARKET INSIGHTS look into the possibility of a GOLDEN CROSS in EURUSD, but care must be paid. For DIRECT ACCESS to Today's Trades, cLick here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=620 NOn-Subscribers, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

EURUSD jumped 100 pts (1 cent) in less than 20 minutes immediately after Bernanke reiterated his dovish comments about the need for more POLICY accommodation to further boost employment. The Fed Chairman dragged down the greenback and boosted metals. Despite the odd hawkish pronouncement from the Federal Reserve (such as the Feb 29th Congressional testimony when gold fell $95), the overall tone remains largely dovish, insisting more accommodation is required. The PRIMARY GOAL of the Feds dovish stance (& shrugging of the data) is to contain the recent run-up in bond yields. The gain in long yields has stood counter to the objective of Operation Twist. But the Fed could be at RISK OF MISCALCULATING. Further Fed dovishness combined with continued upside data surprises may produce higher oil prices and higher bond yields, both of which could stand in the way of the current economic recovery. TODAYs INTERMARKET INSIGHTS look into the possibility of a GOLDEN CROSS in EURUSD, but care must be paid. For DIRECT ACCESS to Today's Trades, cLick here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=620 NOn-Subscribers, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

German IFO improved slightly; Italian consumer confidence rose; German T bill auction; WTI eases back. Market turns to Bernanke and pending home sales. Latest Premium Intermarket Insights to be added towards end of London session.

The greenback is weaker against commodity currencies and unchanged against the rest of the majors. European equities are gaining about 0.3% and the relative strength winners are AUD followed by NZD.

The market opened in Asia on a positive note on the back of reports that Germany will agree to increase the firewall against debt crisis by running the EFSF and the ESM simultaneously. EU commissioner Olli Rehn said that the decision on the firewall's reinforcement will be made at the EcoFin meeting on Friday and Saturday. German finance minister spokesman reiterated today that the decision will be on relationship between the two funds and not on their size.

Even though improving German IFO data initially sent EURUSD higher, the common currency quickly lost ground and dropped from 1.3262 to 1.3191.

The IFO business climate survey rose +0.1 to 10.8 in March, the smallest increase in 5 months after a series of robust gains in the prior months. The same applies for the IFO expectations index, whose 0.3 increase is the smallest in 6 months, a period before which saw 10 consecutive declines.

The German IFO business climate rose in March to 109.8 from 109.7, current assessment sub index remained at 117.4 and the expectations index rose to 102.7 from 102.4. It was surprising to see the IFO rising considering declining PMI's from last Thursday. Digging deeper, we can see that manufacturing, wholesaling and construction all declined and the index rose only on the back of a sharp increase in retailing. EURUSD has recovered to about 1.3235.

The other European report released today was Italian consumer confidence that improved in March to 96.8 from 94.4.

Germany sold 12 month T bills worth of EUR 2.73 bln (EUR 3 bln target). The average yield declined marginally to 0.0765% but bid to cover fell to 1.4 from 1.9.

WTI is easing back after a spike to 108 on Friday afternoon caused by reports that Iranian oil export dropped by 300K barrels a day. WTI currently trades around 106.50.

The US session starts at 8:00 am today with FED chairman Bernanke's opening speech at the National Association for Business Economics in Virginia.

February pending home sales are due at 10:00 am and are expected to slow growth to 1% from January's 2%. Dallas FED manufacturing for March comes 30 minutes later and should decline to 16 from 17.8.

The CFTC Commitment of Traders report showed the USD net long position scaled back by 37%. The euro remains the most heavily shorted currency but positioning fell to -83K from -99K. The move away from GBP shorts was dramatic to -16K from -42K. Similarly, JPY shorts declined to -26K from -44K. The US dollar made up ground against AUD (to +45K from 67K) and NZD (+4K from +13K) but lost ground against CAD, where longs increased to +42K from +27K. All the data is as of the close on Tuesday.