Intraday Market Thoughts Archives

Watch Ashraf explaining on Bloomberg TV today which level on the VIX must be watched and how the signal could translate into further break out in risk appetite, S&P500 and USDJPYflows. Also his insights on EURUSD and GBPJPY http://tinyurl.com/9m4jbf

Catch Ashraf today on CNBC Europe at 4.05 pm GMT and on Bloomberg TV 5.10 pm GMT. You can watch Ashraf's insights on USDJPY cyclical lows and FOMC patterns in Wednesday's Bloomberg interview by clicking on http://tinyurl.com/87u5eg More detailed analysis on this topic is found in Chapter 9 of Ashraf's book.

We have yet to see a rebound in equities of more than 25% after the last two major bounces were confined to less than 20%. In past bear markets, false rallies have extended to as far as 35% before selling re-emerged. The last 3 weeks of 2008 witnessed a moving way from risk-driven trades in currency markets (whereby dollar and yen strengthen during falling equities) and in favour of dollar-specific trading. But with risk appetite pushing higher and the VIX falling to 3 month lows at 40, this would correspond to the following market parameters: ... Rest available to subsribers

Catch Ashraf on CNBC's Squawk Box at 12.30 pm GMT (7.30 pm EST) today.

JPY posts its strongest year since 1999 when measuring its performance against gold. CHF comes in second place in gold terms, followed by the US dollar in third place. Most interestingly, JPY and CHF were also the top two performing currencies in 1999, a year when the global economy was reeling .... Rest available to subsribers. Best wishes for 2009 !

Catch Ashraf on Bloomberg TV today at 11.35 am GMT

EUR must remain supported above $1.4070 in order to maintain the latest bull phase. Rising risk aversion may pose renewed obstacle for the currency, but a host of fundamental factors and thin liquidity could accelerate the moves higher as the bias remains negative USD. EURJPY continues to act as positive indicators for the single currency as the robust JPY fails to make any marked gains vs EUR beyond 125. This is feeding into ... Rest Available to subscribers.

The most recent failed attempt to parity in FX was AUDUSDs failure to breach above 99 cents in July. The fundamentals for EURGBP are different due to the prolonged easing facing the BoE relative to the ECB. While both BoE and ECB are bound by an inflation mandate, the latter governs 15-nations, thereby, more likely to triggering fresh disparate rates of inflation acceleration.

The intensity of the euro's ascent is also emerging among the latest commitment reports of futures speculators, where the number of EUR short contracts vs. the USD fell by more than five folds from the record high shorts attained in mid September. The next report will likely show EURUSD interest to have finally entered net long territory for the first time in 5 months, greasing the wheels for the $1.4650 target mentioned in today's article. Consequently, the euro's 17% jump over the last 3 months is clearly a dollar story, but the euro part of the story must not be ignored as the tale of EURJPY illustrates in the 15% rise in the past 2 months. For the LATEST on CME FUTURES, please visit the Speculators' Futures FX Positions in the ANALYTICS section of this website.