Intraday Market Thoughts Archives

A European rift over Greece and mounting risk aversion weighed most-heavily on EUR and GBP on Friday while JPY, USD and CHF led the gainers. We look at the FX implications of the S&P 500 closing lower for the sixth consecutive week.

Pessimism about the US and global economy continues to rise. On Friday, the S&P 500 fell 18 points, or 1.4%, to 1270. Its the first time the index has fallen in six consecutive weeks since 2002 and its the lowest weekly close of 2011, falling below several important support levels.

Its a weak seasonal time for stocks but its also no surprise the declines are coming as the Fed wraps up QE2. We have heard this market described as a whiny girlfriend or a drug addict; it will kick, scream and throw fits until it gets what it wants (more stimulus from the Fed and/or govt) but more is never enough.

THE KICKING AND SCREAMING IS GOING TO GET WORSE and the Fed appears extremely reluctant to come to the rescue. The pressure is going to mount on the Federal government and it couldnt come at a worse time. VP Biden is working through budget talks aimed at cutting trillions from spending in order to get support for raising the debt ceiling. That is precisely the type of growth-stifling news this market hates.

The question is: how much further do stocks have to fall to get the attention of the Federal govt or the Fed? To 1200? 1100? 1000? Even if stocks fall to last summers lows, the FX trades arent entirely straightforward. The obvious buys are JPY and CHF but how willing are policymakers to allow those currencies to appreciate? There may be some upside in USD but the risk is the story may plays out as US growth slowdown rather than worldwide growth slowdown so that leaves USD vulnerable.

The best trade we see that capitalizes on a fall in stocks is short CAD. CANADA IS LEVERAGED BOTH TO U.S. GROWTH AND POSITIVE RISK SENTIMENT. A decline in both will push CAD lower against virtually everything. A trade that maximizes exposure to risk sentiment is short CAD/CHF (this pair is just above the 2008 low). A trade that minimizes exposure to risk sentiment is long AUD/CAD. Timing it is key. The RSI on the S&P 500 is at the lowest since last summers bottom so its not an opportune time to jump into these positions but they are trades we are watching and will share with premium subscribers.

Ashraf will bring you a weekend version of the Premium analysis to go over Friday's dynamics in FX, energy & equities and the implications for next week.

THUSRDAY's PREMIUM OIL CHARTS REMAIN VALID as shown here: http://tinyurl.com/626nona

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London traders tried to reverse the trend towards a stronger USD seen during the Asian session. USD is currently mixed, stronger against the EUR and AUD and weaker or unchanged against the rest of the majors. GBPUSD is bid despite disappointing Industrial production data. Federal budget deficit data is due later today.

GBP experienced a high volatility after UK April Industrial Production printed -1.7% from previous 0.2% marking the largest decline since August 09. GBPUSD has since recovered most of the losses and currently stands firmly above session lows.

CAD May employment number came out slightly above expectation at 22.3K but weaker than previous 58.3K. Relatively low employment contrasts with unemployment print that showed 7.4% from previous 7.6%. The unemployment has been decreasing each month for the past five months.

At 10:00 am ET, NIESR releases its estimate of UK GDP. The previous reading stood at 0.3%. US monthly budget statement at 2:00 pm. Budget deficit is expected to widen to $150 bln from $136 bln.

Unless these releases shock the market with truly unexpected result, any impact is likely to be limited and short lived. Market dynamics are likely to be determined by overall sentiment and squaring of positions ahead of the weekend.

Stocks are weak but see what the trades in the Premium section are indicating for today and next week. "Adding Oil to our Trade" http://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=439

We listened to your demands and have added US Crude Oil trades to our latest Premium service. But rather than simply showing daily & weekly oil charts, were posting Oil/CRB Ratio Chart as well as the CRB Chart to better dissect the intermarket argument for this trade. As in every trade, we post the technical and fundamental rationale. Our silver and FTSE longs have been squared, while S&P500 is issued a new idea. ***** If you are not yet a premium subscriber, this is the time to witness how we integrate intermarket technicals to fundamentals and bring you our unique trading ideas. GET STARTED HERE: http://www.ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

Sentiment rebounded in Thursdays session sending commodity currencies higher and pushing down the low-yielding JPY and CHF. The euro fell on the long-term rates outlook and discord about Greece. The upcoming session features the always crucial Chinese trade data.

A relief rally after six days of losses boosted the S&P 500 by 0.7% and helped commodity currencies. The index fell 4.9% during the losing streak. AUD recovered all of its post-employment losses against JPY and has nearly done the same versus USD.

Trichet indicated a July rate hike by saying strong vigilance but tempered speculation of further rate rises by saying the ECB had not raised its 1.7% inflation forecast for 2012. The euro also fell after Germany reportedly demanded primate sector participation in the Greek bailout, something the ECB continues to rail against. MOODY's ALSO PLACED SEVERAL PORTUGUESE BANKS on review for a downgrade.

A SOFT T-BOND AUCTION pushed up yields and helped USD. A headline detailing that THE FED IS NOW THE LARGEST US CREDITOR, holding 14% of Treasury supply (compared to China at 12%) also pushed up yields.

Economic data was mixed with US initial JOBLESS CLAIMS increasing 1K to 427K compared to the 419K expected. The US TRADE DEFICIT, however, was much lower than expected at $43.7B due in part to a backlog of orders from quake-stricken Japan.

Talk of HOUSING problems in the US failed to sway optimism. The Feds Yellen said the recovery in the sector will be long and drawn-out. Case-Shiller Index co-founder Robert Shiller said a decline of 10-25% in housing over the next five years wouldnt surprise me at all.

CHINESE TRADE BALANCE AHEAD

Look to Chinas trade balance report at 0200 GMT clues about sentiment for the remainder of the session. Economists forecast a $19.8B surplus in May after a $11.4B surplus in April. On Thursday the US reported a $21.6B deficit with China compared to $18.1B in April. Australia also showed a rising deficit with China. That probably puts an upside bias on report. We emphasize, however that the surplus is far less important than VOLUME of imports and exports. Exports are expected up 29.9% y/y and imports up 21.8% y/y. Of the two, FOCUS ON IMPORTS. Chinese importers of raw materials are on the front lines in anticipating global demand. When China imports slow it means they are anticipating diminishing demand for exports and/or a slowing domestic economy. Either of these things are bad signs for commodity currencies, especially AUD.

Coming up later this evening is in-depth trading/chart ideas on US crude relative to other commodities. Stay tuned.

Euro pulls lower but remains well within the more conventional levels of technical support (see below) on a classic buy-the-rumour-sell the fact pattern following his use of strong vigilance regarding the ECBs take on inflation. When asked whether strong vigilance signaled a July rate hike, Trichet gave the predictable answer it means we are in a mode where there MIGHT be an increase in rates but we are never preccommited.

EURUSD remains well underpinned as per our latest trades, after Wednesday's long of "Long EURUSD between 1.4550-1.4590 for 1.4620-1.4690, with stops at 1.4480" has been hit earlier in the day.

FTSE-100 continues to respect the trading ranges mentioned in the past 9 days. The fact that it continues to bounce off the 200 dma indicates the reliabiity for the bulls to buy on the dips

As stocks push higher, our trades in US crude and silver are nearing their near term targets. Click here for those trades:

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After ECB and BoE announced their decisions to keep rates steady, main focus turns to the press conference at 8:30 am EDT, where J. C. Trichet will determine Euros fate for the short term. Traders should also pay attention to FOMC voter Plosser who speaks at 2:00pm. See how you can trade ahead/after the ECB conference.

The main focus today is clearly the press conference at 8:30 am where the head of ECB, J. C. Trichet could signal next month rate increase. Much has been written about the importance of the phrase strong vigilance. To recap: should Trichet use these words, euro is likely to gain on rate hike expectations, should he omit these words, the euro is likely to take a hit as inflation hawks would be disappointed.

As expected, the Bank of England kept rates steady at 0.5% and held its Asset Purchase Facility unchanged at 200B. UK trade balance for April came out slightly better at -7.4B vs. -7.5B expected.

The ECB also kept rates steady at 1.25% but today, the press conference is even more important than the actual rate decision. Because of the press conference today, traders will not pay much attention to other news. However, headlines coming from Europe continue to point out the internal struggle that EZ is experiencing. Gerhard Schick, a policy expert who represents German Green party, has told German newspaper that the ECB must accept the reality of a Greek debt restructuring. On any other day, Euro would be punished for such a headline. But not today.

New York session starts with busy schedule today. First and foremost, ECBs press conference starts at 8:30 am EDT. Today, all other news will be secondary: US trade deficit due at 8:30am EDT is expected to reach 48.8B from previous 48.2B and unemployment claims are expected at 424K compared to previous 422K.

for PRE-ECB TRADING IDEAS & CHARTS, see our latest premium piece http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=438

At 2:00 pm voting FOMC member Plosser speaks about the US economy at annual conference in London. Plosser has made many hawkish comments in the past and even last weeks disappointing NFP numbers did not alter his view that monetary policy could be tightened by the end of the year.

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Aussie drops by nearly a full cent after a disappointing May jobs report crushed all hopes of a July rate hike. May jobs rose 7.8K, well below median expectation for +21.3k, with the unemployment rate inching higher to 4.93% from 4.86%. The drop in April jobs was larger than initially expected, revised down by 7.3K, eroding all of Mays gains.

All eyes will be on the ECB press conference (12:30 GMT), as traders await if JC Trichet describes the bank's stance on inflation as "strongly vigillant". It is fair to expect a higher euro if Trichet does mention these words, and to expect a weaker euro in the event that they are omitted.

See our latest premium piece for the various trading ideas on the ECB scenarios, with suggested trades in EURUSD, EURJPY and EURGBP. We also maintain our trades for oil, gold, silver, S&P500 and FTSE-100

Wednesday premium piece here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=438

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Sovereign financial woes in Europe and the United States drove a flight to safety on Wednesday. Oil surged after OPEC leaders left meeting without reaching a consensus on supply. In the upcoming session, Australia releases May employment data.

The top performers on Wednesday were JPY and USD with AUD and EUR trailing. Stocks closed lower for the sixth consecutive day with the S&P500 falling 0.4%. The euro fell after MNI (see the FX bullets in the premium section) reported that a bailout for Greece isnt a done deal. The IMF also questioned if Portugals bailout will be effective.

In the Beige Book, the Fed said growth decelerated in some regions in May but maintained that all regional economies continue to expand. They noted stress on employment, manufacturing and consumer spending; some of it due to food and energy, some due to the disaster in Japan.

OPEC Rhetoric Hollow

Leaders left Wednesday's OPEC meetings frustrated after failing to agree upon a production increase. The headlines drove an oil rally as the market focused on the lack of increase rather than the dissent. This may prove to be the wrong interpretation. OPEC is a cartel built to drive oil higher; any signs of an internal fracture are oil-negative. Also, following the meetings Saudis said they will "ensure the market is well-supplied" which means, pump more oil. Saudi Arabia is the ONLY NATION WITH MEANINGFUL SPARE CAPACITY; the rest of OPEC is cheating on its quota or at full production.

To see the updated oil trades in today's Premium piece, click here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=438

Debt Ceiling Politics Draw Ire

In the United States, the debt ceiling situation is beginning to concern US trading partners and ratings agencies but markets so far remain unmoved. China and EU leaders warned that US politicians should not be playing a game of brinksmanship ahead of the August 2 deadline to pass legislation for a higher cap. Fitch Ratings said US TREASURIES WILL BE DOWNGRADED TO JUNK if any payments are missed. Markets still firmly believe a compromise will be reached and 10-year yields fell to 1.95% today after a strong auction. But the belief that some Republicans want to push the US into technical default to prove a point could be damaging to USD.

Asia-Pacific Preview

At 2350 GMT, Japan releases revisions to Q1 GDP. The -0.9% quarterly contraction is expected to be revised to -0.8% but may climb even higher in light of an upside surprise in yesterdays current account report.

The MAIN EVENT is at 0130 GMT when Australia releases Mays jobs report. Employment is expected to rise by 25.6K and the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.9%. In light of the dovish RBA statement, we see AUD RISKS SKEWED TO THE DOWNSIDE. A negative or near-negative reading would severely hamper the case for a rate hike in July or Aug.

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Risk aversion is back and USD is stronger against most counter parts after a downbeat statement from FED chairman Bernanke yesterday. Euro is on the weak side after German data disappointed. Market turns to the Beige book and later in the afternoon to the RBNZ rate decision. Moody's issues cautionary note on UK outlook.

German trade balance in April came out weaker at 12B compared to previous 15.1B which was worse than expected 14B. Industrial production in Europes biggest economy fell in April -0.6% from previous +1.2%. This reading marks the fourth consecutive month of deterioration. EZ Q1 GDP was confirmed at 0.8% and 2.5% y/y.

High volatility was seen across GBP pairs when Moodys senior analyst Sarah Carlson told MNI the UK could lose its prized AAA rating. Moodys spokesman subsequently clarified that UK downgrade is not Moodys central scenario. Recall earlier this week, Chancellor Osborne said he rejected calls for a Plan B to scale back his deficit-reduction plan. Meanwhile. the IMF cautioned over UK growth and employment outlook, but still recommended the BoE should raise rates. Our Premium service did point to rising Short Sterling interest contracts, pointing to eroding chances of UK rate hike.

OPEC decision has been postponed to about 14:00 GMT. Ashraf will make CHANGES TO THE US CRUDE TRADE in today's Premum "Intermarket Insights" later this afternoon.

At 2:00 pm the Federal Reserve releases its Beige Book report. Beige Book provides evidence supplied by Federal Reserve banks regarding their district economic conditions and is used in upcoming FOMC rate decision on June 22nd.

New York session will close at 5:00 pm when the RBNZ announces their rate decision. The cash rate is expected to hold rates steady at 2.5%

The yen is higher in Asia-Pacific trading as regional stocks decline and Japans current account surplus beat expectations. With USD/JPY trading below 80, Japanese Cabinet Secretary and potential PM Edano said they are watching FX moves closely. Swiss employment and German industrial production are highlights of the upcoming European session.

Risk aversion has carried over from a soft US close. The Nikkei is down 0.4% while futures on the FTSE were off 0.58% and on the S&P 500 they are down 0.23%. Copper is down 1% and precious metals are also down slightly.

AUD/USD has now fallen below its post-RBA lows while AUD/JPY is barely above those lows with buyers defending 85.00. Yesterday before the RBA, premium subscribers were offered a short-term AUD/JPY trade with a tight stop that later yielded 85 pips in minutes.

SEE HOW S&P500 may be DIVERGING AWAY from $USDX in our latest piece and the implications for USDX & EURUSD. For more trading ideas, see: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/

Japans current account surplus was stronger than expected in April (at 405.6B compared to the 210.0 expected). The CA figures provided only a small boost as it fell 69.5% y/y due to the disaster. Edano may be talking about intervention but the risk remains remote at these levels.

UD and NZD are lagging despite upbeat Australian lending data. Home loans increased 4.8% in April compared to the +2.3% expected. It was the largest rise since March 2009.

European Preview

Anticipation about Thursdays ECB decision should limit volatility in Europe to an extent. German and French trade figures will be released but the highlight wont come until 1000 GMT with the release of German April industrial production. The consensus is for a 0.2% rise versus the +0.7% prior. The market may have built in slightly higher expectations due to yesterdays factory orders data.

& Adam Buttom

he US dollar fell and stocks decline for the fifth consecutive day after Fed Chairman Bernanke lamented the recovery and retained a dovish tone. We look at the warning signals in the bond market and the chance of a double dip.

Sentiment about the US economy continues to deteriorate and it is dragging down the dollar and stocks. The S&P 500 was higher with 1.5 hours remaining in the session but fell and then fell further after Bernanke delivered his remarks. Dollar bulls were hoping the Fed Chair to would dismiss economic weakness as transitory or that inflation was accelerating but Bernanke was cautious and said US growth so far this year is "somewhat slower than expected" and that inflation was a concern but doesnt see much evidence it is becoming broad-based. Stock market participants were hoping Bernanke would leave the dollar open for QE3 but he gave no hints at further stimulus.

In a separate speech, Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (voter) said there is a high bar for QE3 even though he is troubled by the slowing recovery. In order for the Fed to buy more bonds (beyond re-investments) he said there will need to be a dramatic GDP reversal, more unemployment or the risk of deflation.

Bonds Still Flash Red Flags

A three-year auction was very strong and 10-year yields fell back below 3% despite supply later this week. Two year yields fell to just 0.41%. The bond market is flashing signs of more than just a dovish Fed; there is a demand for safety. Indications are also that Treasury dealers are positioned for bond yields to rise. This trade has gone badly against them, which tells us: 1) They will have to unwind the trade 2) Something they didnt anticipate is happening in the economy (Weakness? Disinflation?)

This is one of the five or so times that the US has looked like it could tip back into recession since the crisis ended. It has proven resilient but this time neither the Fed, nor the Federal government is in a position to provide support. REMEMBER THAT BONDS MOVED FAR BEFORE THE CRISIS and that the USD weakened for some time before it became clear that the problems far exceeded US borders.

London session sees USD weaker across the board. Euro supported not only by Chinese comments but also by stronger EZ Retail Sales and higher German Factory Orders. RBA kept rates unchanged. ALl eyes on Bernanke's speech in US evening for clues on the economy & latest round of Fed policy easing.

The RBA held rates steady at 4.75% as expected last night. The rate statement was somewhat milder, stating that monetary policy was appropriate. After the initial 80 pip spike down, the Aussie was able to recover about half of the losses since London open.

The euro was bid after Chinese official warned of the risk of excessive holdings of USD assets. This statement was later labeled as personal view only.

70-pip gains realised in the EURUSD longs from yesterday's premium piece with the 1.4620-1.480 targets been hit (high was 1.4683). Click here to subscribe http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/

EZ April Retail Sales came out stronger at 0.9% than expected 0.4%. This print marks a significant improvement after previous -0.9% which was revised higher from -1.0%. German Factory Orders also surprised to the upside as they improved from -2.7% to 2.8%. Market expected only an improvement to 2.1%

GBP continues to be bid and does not pay attention to May Halifax House Price index that disappointed at 0.1% vs. 0.4% expected.

There are no significant US economic data releases today. Market only awaits IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index at 10:00 am EDT that is expected to decrease slightly from 42.8 to 42.1 and April Consumer Credit data released at 3:00 pm expected to decrease from 6B to 5.2B. Consumer debt level can be used to gauge lenders confidence. Lower reading therefore implies not only consumers unwillingness to spend but also lenders reluctance to lend.

Traders should also pay attention to speech given by Ben Bernanke, who will speak about the US economic outlook at the International Monetary conference in Atlanta at 3:45 pm.

The RBA decision will likely be about what officials say rather than what they do. The cash rate is likely to remain at 4.75% but policymakers may boost AUD by signaling a hike in July. AUD will weaken if officials dont hike rates or signal an impending rise.

Of 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, 23 expect no change and 5 expect a quarter-point hike to 5.00%. The OIS market is pricing in a 16% chance of a hike and the rates market is pricing in 50 bps in tightening in the next 12 months. The Australia dollar was volatile on Monday ahead of the decision and traded in a nearly 200 pip range against USD. The wide range reflects limited certainty surrounding the decision and sinking risk appetite.

We see no change in rates as a virtual certainty because of recent disappointments in economic data. Australian GDP fell 1.2% in Q1 compared to the -0.7% expected. Although the the reading was heavily skewed by floods and the Japanese disaster it was still the worst in 20 years. Other indicators have also been weak including May employment (-22K), company profits, job ads, consumer sentiment and some housing metrics. External sentiment may also weigh on policymakers with the US economy showing troubling signs.

Still, a hike by Sept is almost universally expected so traders are grappling with the question of whether it will be in July or Aug. The underlying economy remains in mining a resource boom; indicators of investment have been good and last weeks retail sales data beat expectations. Inflation is also above target and in the May 3 RBA meeting, Gov. Stevens said: recent information suggests that the marked decline in underlying inflation from the peak in 2008 has now run its course.

In the event of a surprise hike, AUD could gain 100 pips or more. If there is no hike, the knee jerk reaction could will push AUD 30-40 pips lower against USD and JPY. The rest will depend on the statement.

Remember that the RBA does not always signal hikes. They have no code words, like Trichets strong vigilance. The most recent hike came in Nov. 2010. At the meeting prior, Stevens statement said:

The last time the RBA foreshadowed hikes was Feb 2010. They went on to hike three times in the next three months. The Feb statement said:

The Board considers it likely that monetary policy will, over time, need to be adjusted further in order to ensure that inflation remains consistent with the target over the medium term.

This wasnt exactly a smoking gun and traders should expect no more than this in todays decision. After the initial knee jerk move lower in AUD, this type of comment would cause a rebound higher in AUD, perhaps 50 pips.

A negative surprise that would compound AUD losses would be if the final line of the statement continued to read: the current mildly restrictive stance of monetary policy remained appropriate.

See our Premium piece on which Aussie pairs to trade ahead of the RBA

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Now that the S&P500 has closed below its April low, Let's see how low will risk currencies such as EURUSD will go. Remarks from EU politicians indicating euro is overvalued did help drag EURUSD below 1.46, but we still see this as a possible driver for fresh buys on the dips. PRE-RBA DECISION TRADING IDEAS are found in today's premium piece. Only 5 of the 28 economists expect a rate hike to 5.00% (Barclays, Deusche Bank, Moodys, RBS and ICAP). We do not expect a rate hike. But more importantly, here are 3 trades ahead of the decision for both scenariois

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Quiet trading that started in Asia continues into the London session. Currencies trade in narrow ranges near highs/lows reached on Friday after the disappointing labor market figures. EUR did not react to the slight increase in PPI. Market awaits Canadian data.

EZ April Producer Price Index increased slightly from previous 0.8% to 0.9%. Year over year reading came out at 6.7% vs. 6.6% expected which marked a decrease from previous 6.8%. EUR ignored this data and continued to consolidate Fridays gains.

Euro was equally uninspired by Social Democrats defeat of the ruling Socialist party in yesterdays Portugal election. Pledges that newly elected Social Democrats will honor austerity measures should provide support for the Euro over the short term.

New York session starts at 8:30 am EDT with Canadian April Building Permits that are expected to fall significantly from 17.2% to -2.3% followed at 10:00 am by Canadian Ivey PMI for May. Market is expecting an increase from 57.7 to 59.1. CAD has been lagging not only against EUR, GBP or AUD last week but also against the weak greenback. Negative surprise would therefore likely see a further depreciation of the loonie.

In the absence of US data, the market may react to a speech by Treasury Secretary Geithner who speaks at the International Monetary conference in Atlanta at 1:15 pm.

GBP has been unfazed by negative press commentary on the UK economy, raising the question on whether QE2 will be unavoidable. UK chancellor George Osborne has denied that a plan B is needed after several economists stated that the economy was too fragile to withstand his drastic spending cuts program. Nonetheless, Monday's Telegraph showed that 50 different economists back Osborne's spending cuts. Separately, the Sunday Times reported a study by Morgan Stanely that a double dip in UK housing was likely this year and next, trapping 1.3m homeowners in negative equity. MS's study also sees house declining 3% and another 7% in 2011 and 2012 respectively, erasing the the 10% gains made over the past 2 years,

Trading during this week is likely to be driven by interest rates decisions by RBA on Tuesday, RBNZ on Wednesday and BoE and ECB on Thursday. Analysts expect all central banks to hold rates steady.

Kile Morrison &

The Australian dollar is the early leader and the USD trails in a quiet start to this weeks trading. In Europe, Greeks continue to protest and Portugal elected a new government. The ANZ job advertisements report highlights eco data ahead of Tuesdays RBA decision.

Early moves are pointing to a modest rise in risk appetite after a fall late last week. The scope of moves has been small with AUD/USD climbing 30 pips to 1.0750 as the biggest mover.

Turmoil and change in Europe has not yet weighed on EUR as it remains very close to Fridays closing levels. In Greece, protestors took to the streets for the twelfth consecutive day with some estimates suggesting a crowd larger than 100K on Sunday. In Portugal, the Social Democrats won general elections, beating out the ruling Socialists. The result was expected and incoming PM Coelho promised to meet all the terms of the 78 billion bailout.

It will be a quiet start data-wise with the TD Securities inflation estimate at 0030 GMT and ANZ Banks job advertisements report for May at 0130 GMT. The TD estimate was at 0.3% in April and 3.6% y/y. The job ads report gained 1% in April in the twelfth consecutive monthly gain.

The Australian dollar is the early leader but liquidity will be low and gains are likely to be limited by Tuesdays RBA meeting. The latest survey shows 5 of 28 economists expecting a hike. The OIS market is pricing in only two rate hikes for the next 12 months.

UNLOCKING THE SECRETS OF CURRENCIES & INTERMARKET ANALYSIS

Join Ashraf's Talk this Tuesday at the Market Technicians Association.

- Using technical Analysis for Top-Down Intermarket Approach

- How Long will USD Weakness Remain Despite Global Political Fears?

- Will latest Eurozone Debt Fears Finally Destabilize EURUSD?

- What are the preferred commodity currencies? AUD, CAD or NOK?

- Is the Equities-USD Relationship Broken Again?

- What's next for the Gold/Oil/Silver Relationship?

Date : 7th of June 2011

Time: 17:45

Venue: IG Index Ltd, Cannon Bridge House, 25 Dowgate Hill, London EC4R 2YA

FREE Registration (Members) : http://tinyurl.com/ MTA-Event-Registration

FREE Registration (Non-Members) : Email Courtney Musarra (courtney@mta.org)

Chapter page: www.tinyurl.com/MTA-London

Chapter Chair: Alex Spiroglou (alex@TraderTD.com)