Intraday Market Thoughts Archives
Displaying results for week of Dec 07, 2025Gold During Recessions & Bear Markets
How did Gold do during last 4 recessions & 11 major stock selloffs w/ latest in Gold to Silver and GoldBugs ratio
ردت فعل الذهب خلال أخر 4 مراحل ركود و تحديث لنسبة الذهب الى الفضة مع تجزيء المحتوى الزمني
AAOI & the Fed
Before I tell you about the AAOI Trade I shared with the WhatsApp Broadcast Group last week (now up 38% in less than 5 days), just a few quick words about the Fed. Wednesday's rate cut coupled with no hawkish surprises from Powell's conference was a launchpad for USD weakness, metals strength and equities' surge (Dow30 hit new record). Markets can look beyond Oracle's disappointing earnings to eat the dish served by the Powell (lower rates, short term liquidity while inflation isn't completely vanquished). Anytime you hear/see/smell rate cuts during an inflationary environment, the above occurs. Altcoins and Bitcoins are slow to rally, but Bitcoin miners afre flexing their muscle. See below the AAOI Trade I shared with the WBG, whereby we entered at $26 on Friday and now its $36. Meanwhile, Reddit is up 68% since we bought it in July.
3 Qstns for Today's Fed Meeting
The 1st question is how many dissenters will there be to today's widely anticipated rate cut. The 2nd question is whether the Dot Plot will forecast 3 or 4 rate cuts. If it forecasts 3 or less, then it can trigger a modest selloff in indices and gold with a boost for USD. Will I sell EURUSD? No. Will I Short Nasdaq100? Not at all. I am in fact waiting for a pullback to get in. The 3rd question is whether Powell delivers hawkish surprises at his conference, such as expressing concern about inflation, or sounding sceptical about more than 2 rate cuts. Do Not be surprised if Trump announces today (or tomorrow) his nomination for next Fed Chairman, who is due to replace Powell in May 2026. A choice in Kevin Hassett would be a powerful boost for EURUSD, AUDUSD, gold and indices. Last Friday, I told the WhatsApp Bdcst Group about a stock that is less than $30. The stock is AAOI and today is at $30 from $26. This is for my investments and is not via leverage.
