Intraday Market Thoughts

Bears Lack Follow Through

by Ashraf Laidi
Feb 13, 2020 14:31

Stocks were dealt an initial jolt in early Asia trade after the number of Coronavirus cases in Hubei soared by nearly 14,840 following a change in the method for counting infections. The death toll jumped by 242 for the day alone. More on the IEA warning below. GBP dropped briefly after UK Chancellor Javid (Finance Minister) resigned, but immediately spiked back to 1.3040s after the announced appointment of Rishi Sunak, a former Goldman Sachs analyst and rising young star in the Conservative party. Euro resumes its broad selloff, approaching key levels vs USD and GBP (more below). The English video for Premium susbcribers will follow momentarily.

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Weighing on oil and indices was the warning from the International Energy Agency that global oil demand could drop this quarter for the first time over a decade.

Some key levels

Beware in assuming that each 100-pt drop in the DAX or DOW will extend into a 400-pt plunge. Key levels seen on DOW30 are 29280 and 13600/20. As I will mention in the upcoming video, it is best to wait for more consolidation near current DAX30 levels (13750/13820) before our preferred metrics/components reach levels more suitable for shorts.

Euro extends damage

EURUSD drops below 1.0860 as the single currency is dumped while being used as a funding vehicle to finance risk-on trades in indices. This is especially highlighted by its isolated performance vs USD at a time when the greenback is struggling vs GBP, CAD, the high yielders and even JPY. A break below 1.0820, risks breaking the gap from April 2017, potemtially reaching 1.0680s. 


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