Intraday Market Thoughts

Change the CB Channel

by Adam Button
Jul 11, 2016 23:46

A surprise quick ascension to the UK PM job for Theresa May helps to sharpen the focus on a trio of central banks this week. The pound sterling was the top performer while the Japanese yen lagged. The RBA's Ellis and Japanese data are due later. Our Premium Video will be released tonight at the start of the Asian Tuesday session.

We look at the three central bank decision coming up:

Bank of England (Thursday)

The OIS market is pricing in a 79% chance of a cut but that might tick lower as May fills the political vacuum that was expected for the July-Sept period. In surprise announcements, Leadsom dropped out of the race and Cameron said he will step down late Wednesday. Carney has tipped his hand towards easing but the market has very little idea of how much is coming, what other tools will be used and when. GBP trading was choppy Thursday and that will continue through the decision but shorts may start to get cold feet.

Bank of Canada (Wednesday)

Poloz staked his economic forecasting reputation on the idea that non-commodity exports and investment would be boosted by the weak CAD but record trade deficits the past two months and a sluggish economy has jeopardized that outlook. The weak Canadian jobs report and latest downtick on oil has pushed USD/CAD to the top end of its recent range. Poloz has plenty of reasons to tilt more dovish but don't expect a clear guide towards a cut. The market is pricing just a 9% chance of a move this week.

Bank of Japan (July 29)

Abe and his partners won a surprise two-thirds majority in Sunday's upper house election. That strengthens a mandate that's had a core principle of easing and printing. It was no surprise then that the yen sagged badly to start the week. The first sign of action came early Tuesday on a report in the Japanese press that the government will cut its 2016 real GDP forecast to +0.9% from +1.7%. That will help pave the way for action. In the weeks ahead, we'll look for further clues about what Kuroda is planning.

The BOJ will also be gauging what needs to be done and data at 0430 GMT could offer guidance. The May tertiary industry index is expected down 0.7% after a 1.4% rise in April. The BOJ's household sentiment survey is due at the same time.

The other event to watch is the 0330 GMT speech from the RBA's Ellis. The market is nearly 50/50 on a rate cut for Aug 2 after the latest statement steered clear of guidance. Perhaps Ellis will offer some clues.


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