Intraday Market Thoughts

EUR 1.3560 Ahead of US ADP, GDP & FOMC

by Patrik Urban
Jan 30, 2013 12:45

 British net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals rose; Swiss data mixed; solid Italian auction. Market awaits ADP, GDP and FOMC. A new set of Premium Insights has been issued ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision. 2 new trades in EURUSD, 2 new in USDJPY, 2 dual trades in GBPUSD, 2 new in AUDUSD, 2 new in EURGBP, 2 new in EURJPY and 2 new in CADJPY. Gold, silver and US crude oil trades will be updated shortly.

USD is mixed in the ongoing session. EURUSD strengthened to a 1.3562 session high, USDJPY rose to 91.39 but commodity dollars weakened and still trade near session lows.

British net lending to individuals increased in December and reached GBP 1.7 bln from prior GBP 0.1 bln and mortgage approvals rose to 56K from 54K which is the highest level since 09/2012. GBPUSD rose alongside the euro and trades around 1.5775.

The CHF strengthened despite a set of mixed data out of Switzerland. The UBS consumption indicator rose in December to 1.34 from prior 1.23 but the KOF economic barometer fell sharply in January to 1.05 from previous 1.29. USDCHF fell to 0.9155.

Italy sold 5 and 10 year BTPs totaling EUR 6.5 bln vs. 4.5-6.5 bln target. Both average yields declined and cover was mixed. Germany allotted EUR 1.637 bln of 30 year Bund vs. 2 bln target. The average yield rose to 2.45% from 2.34% and cover fell to 1.8 from 2.7. 18.2% were retained.

The US session begins at 8:15 am ET with the ADP report that is expected to decline to 164K in January from December's 215K followed by Q4 GDP at 8:30 am that is forecasted to slow to 1.2% from prior 3.1% y/y. Markets will then wait for the FOMC decision and statement at 2:15 pm. The FOMC is likely to reiterate its stance on QE so today's meeting could be a non-event.

NZD traders await the RBNZ rate decision and statement at 3:00 pm. Rates are widely anticipated to remain steady at 2.5%.

Act Exp Prev GMT
Spain GDP (Constant SA) (4Q) (q/q) [P]
-0.7% -0.6% -0.3% Jan 30 8:00
Spain GDP (Constant SA) (4Q) (y/y) [P]
-1.8% -1.7% -1.6% Jan 30 8:00
Net Lending to Individuals (DEC) (m/m)
£1.7B £0.9B £-0.1B Jan 30 9:30
Mortgage Approvals (DEC)
55.785K 54.500K 54.036K Jan 30 9:30
ADP Employment Change (JAN)
165K 215K Jan 30 13:15
UBS Consumption Indicator (DEC)
1.34 1.23 Jan 30 7:00
KOF Leading Index (JAN)
1.05 1.16 1.29 Jan 30 8:00
Fed Interest Rate Decision
0.25% 0.25% Jan 30 19:15
RBNZ Rate Decision
2.5% 2.5% Jan 30 20:00

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