Intraday Market Thoughts

First Republic, Debt Ceiling, CDS & Bitcoin

by Ashraf Laidi
Apr 26, 2023 14:42

Bitcoin's status as the best candidate for replacin fractional reserve baking is resurfacing, following another 30% plunge in First Republic Bank's (FR) shares after announcing an additional loss of $72b in deposits, including the $30bn in emergency deposits provided by 11 banks. FR's latest bleed is captured in Wednesday's pre-market action (chart below), plotted against Bitcoin's swift jump back to $30000. Meanwhile, the ongoing bipartisan impasse over the US debt ceiling negotiations, is driving US CDS to a new 22-year high. No, we will not need to post a gold chart, showing rapid gains, but you can guess what's happening to metals. But you can bet that odds of post-May Fed tightening are increasingly inverse with XAUUSD. 

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First Republic, Debt Ceiling, CDS & Bitcoin - First Republic Bitcoin Apr 26 2023 Red Blue (Chart 1)


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