Non-Farm Payrolls Are Pivotal
The early consensus on non-farm payrolls is 700K job in June. That should firm up after ADP employment rose 692K compared to 600K expected, though that report has a poor recent track record.
Whatever the employment number is on Friday, there is plenty of evidence that jobs are available. The issue is that workers aren't applying for low paid jobs the way they used to. Part of the reason is that in much of the country, jobless benefits will extend through August.
That's allowing workers to be picky in what work they will accept. In addition, families have an incentive to wait until after the summer when school restarts.
That thinking puts the Fed on a slow path to tapering but it could change if there is a surprisingly strong jobs report. In particular, the wage indications could convince some FOMC members that inflation risks call for more action.
For the dollar, the trade is straightforward around USD/JPY. It's testing the April 2021 highs and not far off the 2020 peak at 112.23. That's followed by a series of annual highs that stretch up to 115.00. Dominos will begin to fall whenever the jobs growth materializes.Latest IMTs
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