Where the Dollar Decline is Absent
The US dollar has slumped for the past three day. It began with weak retail sales, continue with soft industrial production and on Thursday, housing starts rose just 2% compared to 16% expected. That didn't immediately send the dollar lower but after a mediocre Philly Fed, which included new orders falling to the lowest since May 2013, the dollar began to list.
Fed talk was rampant but it was generally supportive. The theory that a small bout of seasonal weakness is passing through the economy is omnipresent and was repeated by Fischer and Lockhart – two Fed members that often represent the core. Both also expressed some level of discomfort with the strong dollar but it only added the slightest bid to the dollar.
For the next dollar move, look to the data. Increasingly lower-tier data is weighing on the dollar but one or two better numbers – CPI and U Mich sentiment are due Friday – could quickly remind the market why it fell so in love with the dollar to begin with.A spot to keep an especially close eye on is USD/JPY. It's held up well despite the recent round of dollar selling and remains just 2.6% from a multi-year high. Thursday's low also didn't breach the previous day's low as signs of strong support at 118.75 emerge. If that breaks, it may set off another round of weakness but dollar bulls won't stay quiet forever and when it turns, that pair is a solid spot for optimism.
|Housing Starts (MAR) (m/m)|
|0.926M||1.040M||0.908M||Apr 16 12:30|
|Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (APR)|
|7.5||6.0||5.0||Apr 16 14:00|
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