Intraday Market Thoughts

Where the Dollar Decline is Absent

by Adam Button
Apr 16, 2015 23:15

The US dollar was beaten up again on Thursday. The market seemingly needs less of an excuse each day as soft housing starts were enough to pave the way for another rout. One pair that isn't embracing the dollar dip is USD/JPY, we look at what it means. The Asia-Pacific but comments will continue to trickle out of the IMF meetings.  

The US dollar has slumped for the past three day. It began with weak retail sales, continue with soft industrial production and on Thursday, housing starts rose just 2% compared to 16% expected. That didn't immediately send the dollar lower but after a mediocre Philly Fed, which included new orders falling to the lowest since May 2013, the dollar began to list.

Fed talk was rampant but it was generally supportive. The theory that a small bout of seasonal weakness is passing through the economy is omnipresent and was repeated by Fischer and Lockhart – two Fed members that often represent the core. Both also expressed some level of discomfort with the strong dollar but it only added the slightest bid to the dollar.

For the next dollar move, look to the data. Increasingly lower-tier data is weighing on the dollar but one or two better numbers – CPI and U Mich sentiment are due Friday – could quickly remind the market why it fell so in love with the dollar to begin with. 

A spot to keep an especially close eye on is USD/JPY. It's held up well despite the recent round of dollar selling and remains just 2.6% from a multi-year high. Thursday's low also didn't breach the previous day's low as signs of strong support at 118.75 emerge. If that breaks, it may set off another round of weakness but dollar bulls won't stay quiet forever and when it turns, that pair is a solid spot for optimism. 

Our USDCAD short at 1.2480 hit its final target at 1.2220, while Thursday's EURUSD long trade at 1.0605 remains in progress with 200 pips in the money. NZDUSD, EURGBP, EURAUD and GBPAUD also remain in progress.  See Latest Premium Insights.
Act Exp Prev GMT
Housing Starts (MAR) (m/m)
0.926M 1.040M 0.908M Apr 16 12:30
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (APR)
7.5 6.0 5.0 Apr 16 14:00

Latest IMTs