CADJPY Redux

by Ashraf Laidi
Jan 15, 2010 4:39 | 92 Comments

CADJPY Redux - Cadjpyhotchartjan 15 10 (Chart 1)

CADJPY had been unable to break that 90.20-30 resistance, which proved to be a major confluence; 38% retracement of the decline from the 125.29 high (Nov 07) to the 68.38 low (Jan 09) as well as the low from Aug 05 and the high from Jun & Aug 09. The string of disappointing economic news from Canada (unexpected payrolls loss, unexpected trade deficit and tumble in building permits) has started to disrupt the loonie from its recent bull run. Although oil price strength has boosted CAD as of late, we may see a situation where risk aversion and stock market nervousness during earnings season to weigh on the commodity currencies vs. JPY, in which case CAD could be at the top of the list due to these fading fundamentals. Preliminary target seen at 88.20, followed by 87.80. The downleg could ultimately extend to continue towards 87.30. CADJPY volatility could trigger several bounces above 89.50s, therefore shorts must consider stops between 89.60 and 90.

 

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Comments (Showing latest 10 of 92) View All Comments
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2010 14:58
What happened Goldman? Cable sub-1.5800. Two weeks ago you told the world it was a screaming buy at 1.6450, then sold out and paid hundreds of millions in bonuses.
Tanvir Ansari
Michigan, United States
Posts: 11
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2010 14:54
GS is right now playing USDCAD. A more than 100 pip movement and it is in one direction. USDJPY is stagnant, and when it was going up, USDCAD was going up, when USDCAD is coming down from 91.28 to 90.50, This has still gone up 100 pips.
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2010 14:50
Speaking of Goldman Sachs-last we all heard from them on FX they were PIMPING sterling at 1.6450 after two weeks of front-running eur/gbp.

Noow look at sterling.

If Goldman Sachs liked sterling at 1.6450 two weeks ago, wouldn't they love it and be pounding the table to buy it at 1.5820?

Where's Abby Joseph Cohen when you need her? Hiding in the Witness Protection Program living on her tens of millions of bonus money?
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2010 14:46
@Pipped: Closed my short position in FTSE100 too early!

Oh well, can't win 'em all.

Still I suppose your friends in GS will be pumping it all back up soon enough ...

:-)
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2010 14:38
Panics in the markets
Tanvir Ansari
Michigan, United States
Posts: 11
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2010 14:22
Since EURUSD is going for 1.32 will USDCAD hit 1.10 or 1.12?
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2010 2:15
Chloe- are you back long usd/cad? I made a good chunk yesterday on it. I have bids to go long layered to 1.0560.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
13 years ago
Feb 4, 2010 0:58
86.30 remains key barrier.

Ashraf
chloethebull
Posted Anonymously
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2010 0:19
hi ashraf, could you comfirm...tomors data thats due out, if its a strong # can we expect both usd an markets to rally again?if # are weak can we expect usd to drop an markets rally higher? thanks for the insight ..all can comment..thanks an gl
The1MTF
amman, Jordan
Posts: 1
13 years ago
Feb 3, 2010 0:05
Do You Think this pair will hit 86.00 At the short term? ( CADJPY )