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GBP Getting Best of Down Under

by Ashraf Laidi
Jul 28, 2010 15:55 | 32 Comments

GBP Getting Best of Down Under - GBPAUDJUL28HOTCHART (Chart 1)

GBPAUD reflects contrasting expectations for the RBA and BoE, with the former expected to keep rates on hold due to softer than expected inflation and the latter seeing better reasons to listen to its hawkish members. Today marked the first time since July 2009 where GBP does NOT fall following Mervyn Kings testimony. With AUDUSD quickly FALLING back below its 200-day MA and GBPUSD RISING above its 200-day MA for the first time since Jan, the preferred play is favouring GBPAUD, especially that any GBPUSD longs from here may face resistance in the event of any sharp risk aversion. Since we know that AUD is the reliable victim of risk aversion, it is best to sell it vs. a currency whose fundamentals are neutral-to-positive. Having simultaneously broken above 200-day and 55-day MA today, GBPAUD eyes interim target at 1.7580s, followed by 1.77. While my bias remains firmly in favour of EURAUD, GBPAUD is an attractive alternative considering my negative positioning on EURGB. A a break below 1.72s merits scrutiny from the longs, while a close below 1.6980s is a red flag.

 

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Comments (Showing latest 10 of 32) View All Comments
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
12 years ago
Aug 27, 2010 13:44
looks like that fib level got breached on the way back down again.
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
12 years ago
Aug 27, 2010 8:46
finally called something right! we went to 17360 and broke higher and now holding the previous resistance level 17450 , i have a fib level intersecting at 17430 in 2 days with the new support trend line , does anybody think we could push higher from here? gbpaud still in a wedge till 176/7 becomes new support which is atleast another week (im guesstimating)
anyone agree ?
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
12 years ago
Aug 25, 2010 8:55
very interesting day today if gbpaud can hold 17350 as a support level i am of the view we are likely to break higher out of the top trendline resistance level thats been tested several times these past week or so.
Any views as ever greatly appreciated.
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
12 years ago
Aug 23, 2010 10:52
actually more likely america carries on expanding its debts paranoid of the double dip, whilst gb carries on cutting its debt. australia looks likely to undergo a massive gov. funded $30bln broadband nationwide roll out AND plan on having a budget surplus! now that is au$ positive!
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
12 years ago
Aug 23, 2010 10:46
i think what im trying to say is it's a LOT of pips to lose/win from the may low to the july high of the gbpaud. The trendlines seem to be converging in on or around 28-30th august, im just very excited about the potential break out of this pair, strangely looking at audusd does look like a short to me :) (i'm just thinking outloud here..more dollar weakness and pound strength ahead perhaps with commodities strengthening from renewed non oec / bric's nations??)
Carlco
UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Aug 23, 2010 10:26
exactly orange trader, hence a forum where posts could be edited would be nice :)
trying to keep posts concise always leaves the door open to lost in translation.
orange_trad
New York, New York, United States
Posts: 20
12 years ago
Aug 23, 2010 9:30
Carlco, do yourself a favor. Pull up a chart of AUDUSD hourly, EURAUD hourly, and then GBPAUD hourly. Also consider that given the hung parliament the aussie is UP... Does this picture make you want to short AUD now? The weeklies show that a big move is coming, but it could go either way. So wait until the weekly shows its hands until then trade shorter timeframes.
Carlco
bristol, UK
Posts: 151
12 years ago
Aug 22, 2010 18:35
trying to understand the gbpaud weekly chart , and you could say that a break higher is looking more likely with a hung gov.
Carlco
UK
Posted Anonymously
12 years ago
Aug 20, 2010 18:08
ive become more and more fascinated at gbpaud chart, although the weekly parabolic sar has turned bearish this week, (hasn't been bearish since feb.8th. ending may10th and gave 800pips) , this, even though the stochastic is a lot higher, im concerned at the lack of direction this past 2 weeks, 16250 has to be the floor right??
but remember the snap elections are tomorrow maybe thats whats caused the currency swing as julia gillard is planning her re-election, if she does win it looks like she'll be looking at tightening the fiscal budget after massive spending too. � anyone???
orange_trad
New York, New York, United States
Posts: 20
12 years ago
Aug 20, 2010 9:07
Scaled out at 1.75s, 1.753 resistance intact. Looking for shorts from here, dependent on GBPUSD: there will be no important news for GBP today, so renewed interest in selling it might help GBPAUD back down to 1.73 - 1.725.
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