NZDUSD Eyes Sub-0.63

Further downside room for NZDUSD remains despite 200-pt loss over past 3 days. Latest weakness in NZD data and the RBNZs reluctance to intervene, combined with deteriorating internals for US and emerging market equity indices, spells prolonged selling towards TL support of 0.6260, a break of which may call up 0.6170s. NZDJPY also appears vulnerable, suggesting 60.70 and 59.80 targets. Renewed talk from Chinese officials demanding G8 to discuss a new reserve currency will continue to weaken the US currency and provide some support for NZDUSD but the risk foundation in the markets appears increasingly NZD-negative. Upside capped at 0.6430s.
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i see 0.6930-- 61.8% retracement as well as the choppy resistance on Sep 18. downside target for Oct seen at 0.62.
Ashraf
I had just initiate short NZD/USD, what is your medium term target for this pair I,e September/October?
Thank you
Ashraf
Ashraf
What's your take on the Brazilian real? I find it quite attractive at current levels - when the economy rebounds it will certainly shoot - and there is positive noise about it from the financial community as well. Please suggest a good, medium-term pairing of real w/ another currency. Thanks!
Asad
P.S. They also now own, which is possibly the world's largest, Tupi oil field (although extracting it is another story). Sugar and coffee prices have reached record-beating highs recently and Brazil is home to both commodities. Hmm it could be a pretty sexy punt within the next 12 mo. What do you think...??
Ashraf
Ashraf