أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي عربية -- 21 نوفمبر2012
Nov 22, 2012 12:59
EU summit negotiations continue to revolve around the following points: Will EU/IMF agree over maintaining the 120% debt/GDP target to be attained by 2020, or will they grant more debt relief by extending the target date to 2022 but tightening the debt/GDP target to 110% instead of 120%. The IMF continues to oppose extending the date to 2022. EURUSD technicals have improved slightly but require major catalysts to break above the mutli-confluence resistance of 1.2820-30. EURJPY remains the preferred alternative to buying EUR, especially as we near our objective of 107 from September.
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Now that both gold and silver broke well below key fibonacci levels following the jump in global bond yields, the selloff could accelerate depending on the extent, which stocks correct. We have learned this year, each time indices fall by more than 1%, metals move lower as asset managers liquidate long metals positions to stabilize their portfolios. We know the #1 economic priority (not an exageration) of the US administration is to stabilise bond yields in order to cap the interest rate on servicing the ballooning US debt. Gold and silver need to save the immediate support of 4500/oz and 75.40s/oz . The 23.6% retracement follow at $4450/oz and $73/oz respectively. Keep an eye on 10 year US bond yields, especially the possibility of a breakout of the wedge, which could trigger 5.0% in a swift manner. The market consequences of such an event would be cataclysmic.
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