by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 22, 2011 5:28
Ashraf Laidi discusses a wide range of topics for Dubai TV's "Biddirham", distinguishing between the euro's weakness of 2010 and of 2011, and how US rate expectations are the main reasons EURUSD is well above last year's levels. Ashraf also covers the outlook for gold and silver in the face of central banks' policy manoeuvres, as well as the role of traders' sentiment in the latest turn in the Eurozone debt crisis. Ashraf's Premium Intermarket Insights are found here:http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 20, 2011 18:25
Noting the better than expected economic figures from the US & Germany against eroding confidence in the euro and lack of resolution on the EFSF front
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 12, 2011 20:38
Ashraf Laidi telling AlArabiya of that week's warning about a break in the EURUSD's consolidation has yet to unfold and that gold is due for further losses towards $1600s. Also, on how the sell-off in the once safe-haven metal has been triggered by the activation of safety & raising of cash during the uncertainty, such as today's negative guidance by Intel and the growth/credit rating warning from Fitch at a time when S&P was anticipated to unfold to follow-up on last week's "group" warning.
When asked about the SOLUTION to the Eurozone debt problem, the answer given is aggressive participation by China & Brazil into the latest bilateral contributions to the IMF, currently totaling € 200 bln, and raise the amount by at least € 150 bln.
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 9, 2011 19:36
Ashraf Laidi compares the current turmoil with the 2008 financial crisis and how it impacts the Middle East and North Africa.
Unlike in the crisis of 2008 when a weak US dollar was tied to soaring energy prices, today's crisis emerges with relatively cheaper euro, stronger USD and fairly priced oil.
With oil prices 30% below those of 2008 and the US dollar 10% higher than in 2008, oil prices are neither too inflationary, nor too low for GCC exporters. And as long as prices are well above the break-even levels of $60 per barrel, this is a positive for the region.
More importantly, the GCC, which is generally tied to the US currency, does not face the inflation problems of 2008, which were largely caused by the falling USD.
The MAJOR RISK occurs if (when) an outright recession in the Eurozone (including Germany) impacts China and leads to deepening slowdown for GCC exports from China AND Europe. China is now the EU's biggest source of imports i.e. China exports have been largely dependent on Europe. With China already slowing (see last week's RRR cut and our expectation for a December rate cut in benchmark rates), we anticipate the impact on Chinese and EU demand for MidEast energy to be severe in the event that GCC is unable to slow a price slump via supply cuts.
GCC importers from Eurozone will benefit from further declines in EUR vs USD as it weighs on the value of their imports. This also keeps inflationary pressures muted, which is unlike in the case of 2008, when the falling USD and rising oil prices triggered the double blow of rising inflation and slowing growth.
For the impact on MENA & investment holdings, seehttp://ashraflaidi.com/
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 7, 2011 3:11
Ashraf Laidi speaking with Nadine Hani & Carina Kamel of AlArabiya, discussing S&P's latest warnings on the Eurozone and Gold's underpeformance
by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 29, 2011 17:05
Ashraf Laidi Discussing the Credit Rating Threats to France on AlArabia - Nov 29, 2011
by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 1, 2011 1:08
Previewing the EU Debt Plan on Turkish Bloomberg TV - Oct, 26 2011
by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 3, 2011 2:09
Reiterating my $1.29 call for EURUSD on CNBC, basing it on the inadequacy of the EFSF, interest rate cycles and lack of aggressive easing from the Federal Reserve. September, 28, 2011