Article Archives (2016)

Rising equity prices remain the path of least resistance as US indices push to new record highs. The Fed continues to remove itself from the considerations of good/bad catalysts to market dynamics, leaving US-China trade talks as the only factor. Even the impeachment proceedings are far from being considered as material to risk. Indices push higher after each piece of good news on the US-China trade war front (Kudlow's comments), bounce back swiftly on not-so good news, while macro US data makes no difference (more below). Intermarket moves reflect a broadening risk-on climate, as USD and JPY weakness underpins strength in NZD and GBP, and even CAD is recovering alongside oil. How can we extend in this fashion? The Premium video below highlights my updated analysis on the expected limits of the current extensions in SPX and DOW30, with a focus on USDX, EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD.