Ashraf Laidi on AlArabia: Japan, Yen, BRICs & QE3 Mar 28, 2012
Mar 28, 2012 19:15
Ashraf talks about the yen outlook following the start of the new Japanese fiscal year, indicating that renewed overseas investments from Japan may further weigh on the currency. He also discusses the outperformance of G7 equities relative to the BRICs, attributing it to improved fundamentals from the US and central bank--based policies in Eurozone and UK. Finally, Ashraf reiterates that Fed Chairman Bernanke's lack of enthusiasm with the improvement in US labour markets is aimed at maintaining markets' hopes for further QE. At the end of the day, Ashraf sees a "restricted" form of quantitative easing, rather than outright injections.
Now that both gold and silver broke well below key fibonacci levels following the jump in global bond yields, the selloff could accelerate depending on the extent, which stocks correct. We have learned this year, each time indices fall by more than 1%, metals move lower as asset managers liquidate long metals positions to stabilize their portfolios. We know the #1 economic priority (not an exageration) of the US administration is to stabilise bond yields in order to cap the interest rate on servicing the ballooning US debt. Gold and silver need to save the immediate support of 4500/oz and 75.40s/oz . The 23.6% retracement follow at $4450/oz and $73/oz respectively. Keep an eye on 10 year US bond yields, especially the possibility of a breakout of the wedge, which could trigger 5.0% in a swift manner. The market consequences of such an event would be cataclysmic.
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