Ashraf Laidi on CNBC About Football & the Eurozone - June 22, 2012
Jun 25, 2012 3:26
Ashraf draws a few analogies between the Euro2012 Football match between Greece and Germany and their respective roles in the Eurozone.
Barely five years ago, it was unimaginable for Germany's "player of the moment" to be named "Mario Gomez", or have a prolific midfielder named "Mesut Ozil". Just as it has become more "accepted" for Germany's football team to have key players originating from Poland, Spain, Turkey and Tunisia, Chancellor Merkel's government may have no choice but to play by the rules of reality demonstrating flexibility in dealing with its Southern neighbors.
The Bundesbank's staunch opposition to bond purchases was overcome two years ago and will likely do so again this autumn with the inclusion of a third LTRO. Although the LTRO was solely useful for containing bond yields and alleviating banks' liquidity costs by dragging down EUROIS spread, it was beneficial in buying policymakers time. Just as the German central bank succumbed to those demands, it has grown tolerant of a temporary increase in inflation. Now Berlin may need to accept rendering the fiscal rules more flexible, by allowing an extension of fiscal targets for Spain and Greece.
Berlin is also being pressured by France and the IMF to further support recapitalizing banks directly without the involvement of the governments, as is currently proposed for Spain.
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Now that both gold and silver broke well below key fibonacci levels following the jump in global bond yields, the selloff could accelerate depending on the extent, which stocks correct. We have learned this year, each time indices fall by more than 1%, metals move lower as asset managers liquidate long metals positions to stabilize their portfolios. We know the #1 economic priority (not an exageration) of the US administration is to stabilise bond yields in order to cap the interest rate on servicing the ballooning US debt. Gold and silver need to save the immediate support of 4500/oz and 75.40s/oz . The 23.6% retracement follow at $4450/oz and $73/oz respectively. Keep an eye on 10 year US bond yields, especially the possibility of a breakout of the wedge, which could trigger 5.0% in a swift manner. The market consequences of such an event would be cataclysmic.
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