Ashraf Laidi on CNBC after the PSI Deal - Mar 9, 2012
Mar 9, 2012 7:44
Ashraf Laidi speaks on CNBC minutes after Greece secures its agreement on the PSI deal from 86% of creditors. All these PSI acrobatics were aimed at enabling Greece to receive its 2nd bail out and meet its March 20th payment. There are no guarantees that Greece will not need a 3rd bailout as the nation enters its 6th year of recession as well as prolonged policy following the outcome of the elections later this year. Let's also not forget that negative Eurozone pressures (rising yields, falling euro & surging CDS prices) tend to be exasberate the euro siuation as these are draged by risk aversion, which may be the result of oher exogenous factors such as less dovishness from the Fed
Now that both gold and silver broke well below key fibonacci levels following the jump in global bond yields, the selloff could accelerate depending on the extent, which stocks correct. We have learned this year, each time indices fall by more than 1%, metals move lower as asset managers liquidate long metals positions to stabilize their portfolios. We know the #1 economic priority (not an exageration) of the US administration is to stabilise bond yields in order to cap the interest rate on servicing the ballooning US debt. Gold and silver need to save the immediate support of 4500/oz and 75.40s/oz . The 23.6% retracement follow at $4450/oz and $73/oz respectively. Keep an eye on 10 year US bond yields, especially the possibility of a breakout of the wedge, which could trigger 5.0% in a swift manner. The market consequences of such an event would be cataclysmic.
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