Whether the US ends up in the outbreak of the fiscal cliff or simply delaying it, the materialization or the threat of a clear deterioration in GDP (F.C. may cause as much as 1% drop in GDP growth) will give no choice to the Fed but to resume (and possibly deepen) its policy of asset purchases. Regardless, Deceember expected to trigger fresh rounds of CenBank stimuli.
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Now that both gold and silver broke well below key fibonacci levels following the jump in global bond yields, the selloff could accelerate depending on the extent, which stocks correct. We have learned this year, each time indices fall by more than 1%, metals move lower as asset managers liquidate long metals positions to stabilize their portfolios. We know the #1 economic priority (not an exageration) of the US administration is to stabilise bond yields in order to cap the interest rate on servicing the ballooning US debt. Gold and silver need to save the immediate support of 4500/oz and 75.40s/oz . The 23.6% retracement follow at $4450/oz and $73/oz respectively. Keep an eye on 10 year US bond yields, especially the possibility of a breakout of the wedge, which could trigger 5.0% in a swift manner. The market consequences of such an event would be cataclysmic.
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Understanding US Dollar 2018 2019
I created this chart in December 2024, pointing to the importance of understanding some of the fundamental events shaping USD Index between 2018 and 2019. Why 2018 and 2019.
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