أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 18 أبريل 2013
Apr 18, 2013 18:36
Ashraf tells CNBC Arabia about the losses in gold and the $560 bn in losses to central bank reserves. Fears of margin hikes in China, chatter that Italy (4th largest owner of gold) may start selling reserves; Fed selling GLD naked shorts in order to rebalance the 50-1 ratio of Buyers-Sellers of bullion; and violent unwinding of the short yen/long risk assets trade leading to gold liquidation. Last week we warned about the sharp drop in the Gold/S&P500 ratio, which today has reached a 5-year low. The big question now emerges as to where gold will go. 1350 has proven to be the 30% peak to trough decline, referred to in previous webinars and to our Premium subscribers. The recent bounce may lift gold towards 1400s but so far the indications suggest gold will revisit 1350s and may have the dynamics to extend further down to 1290s. Our bearish stance of the past 3 months has been mainly backed by multi-time frame momentum measures, which we converted into recommendations for our Premium subscribers with varying success due to miscalculation of stops. More importantly, trading rationales were accompanied with each trade and shift in bias. There are also important developments in the Gold/Silver ratio and the extent to which silver may add to its losses.http://ashraflaidi.com/premium/trades
Risk trades initially cheered an unexpectedly strong non-farm payrolls report but the enthusiasm didn't last (More on the dynamics of market reaction and yesterday's key 6 charts below). Strong US data and recovering China PMIs helped affirm the paragdigm of stabilizing growth = USD weakness, which was anticipated in yesterday's NFP preview here. XAG, AUD, NZD are leading against the USD, while GBP and CHF lag. The US is on holiday, giving markets a chance to regroup. Monday's long DOW30 trade in the Premium Insights' hit its 26200 target yesterday for a 670-pt gain, while last week's Premium long in DAX at 12130 has yet to reach its final target of 12770, but Ashraf may close it before today's close.
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Strong US jobs & caveats
US June non-farm payrolls roundly beat expectations with 4.8m new jobs added compared to the 3.2m consensus. In addition, the prior two reports were revised modestly higher. Perhaps most impressive was the unemployment rate at 11.1% compared to 12.5% expected. The caveat that market participants had been watching surrounding that metric was in those absent from work for 'other reasons'. It had swelled recently and would have meant an additional 3 percentage point increase in May. The BLS highlighted that many of those probably belonged in the unemployed category were estimated at up to 3%. This month, they estimated that only 1 pp of them were likely miscategorized.