Most particularly about today's action is the recurring divergence between a falling euro and rising equities (alongside risk currencies weighing on USD) before the Fitch downgrade triggered an-all round risk-off reversal. As we speak, markets are attempting to rebound into the green, leaving the euro behind, highlighting the possibility that further question marks in Spanish banks ability to recapitalize will not necessarily spill-over to non-Eurozone assets as far as contagion is concerned.
Combining the Spain bailout with expectations of a market-friendly outcome in Greek elections (New Democracy now leads over leftwing Syriza party) and signals for further QE in next week's FOMC allows for an extension of the recent rebound in equity indices. This is already favouring the risk currencies of GBP, NZD and AUD, with CAD.
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Gold is back retesting that $4670/80 level, representing the 38% fibonacci retracement, covered in that Fibonacci video 3 weeks ago. This time, however, the level, becomes a resistance rather than support. Note how silver is also facing a key 38% retracement level around 84.00. It is common to see silver falling behind gold, or gold leading silver. If more optimism emerges and metals push higher alongside further USD weakness, then silver's path above 80 will imply a decline in the gold/silver ratio. Watch whether gold closes the NY session above $4680/90, in which case silver will need to confirm with a break above 80 in Thursday Asia or Thursday Europe session. For those trading gold, 4720 follows as the immediate resistance, a break oif which paves the way for 4770.
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