أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي عربية -- 24 اكتوبر 2012
Oct 24, 2012 16:08
Ashraf points out Euro markets (FX & bonds) are showing the opposite behaviour from earlier this summer, being the last to sell-off during risk aversion, while back in May-July, euro FX & bonds were the last to stabilize during rallying equity markets. 1.2940 trendline continues to hold as far as the NY close and 1680s and 30.80 are the support levels for gold and silver respectively. Metals will continue to outperform energy. Also mention word of the Aussie starting to outperform the Canadian dollar as the latter is weighed down by the BoC warnings and Canada's govt rejection of the Malaysian-owned Petronas' takeover bid of Progress Energy Resources.
Now that both gold and silver broke well below key fibonacci levels following the jump in global bond yields, the selloff could accelerate depending on the extent, which stocks correct. We have learned this year, each time indices fall by more than 1%, metals move lower as asset managers liquidate long metals positions to stabilize their portfolios. We know the #1 economic priority (not an exageration) of the US administration is to stabilise bond yields in order to cap the interest rate on servicing the ballooning US debt. Gold and silver need to save the immediate support of 4500/oz and 75.40s/oz . The 23.6% retracement follow at $4450/oz and $73/oz respectively. Keep an eye on 10 year US bond yields, especially the possibility of a breakout of the wedge, which could trigger 5.0% in a swift manner. The market consequences of such an event would be cataclysmic.
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