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  • Intraday Market Thought: Where to Hide

    by Adam Button | Feb 28, 2020 19:33
    Where to Hide Chart As I write this, Fed Chair Powell releases a statement, assuring the Fed....Market had a late-session bounce...Ashraf said yesterday he expected some sort of action before the weekend...Powell's stmt is enough of an action to send markets in the green...The endless drip of new worrisome cases led market participants to unload....It's an understandable reaction to the extreme uncertainty from the....Yet, almost all wealth needs to be held in some currency or some place; we look....As I write this, Ashraf has just released a trade that is backed by 3....كيفية التداول إثر تصاعد المخاوف...On Thursday, WHO leader Tedros said we're at the decisive point in....The market has already decided it's much more likely to be a global pandemic...Let's assume it is...If so, it may be a global catastrophe unlike anything in generations...Let's set that aside for a moment and look at the financial/econ side and,....First, consider how the pandemic will spread...nbsp; Sooner or later, there will be another country with a coronavirus....Right now authorities are scrambling in South Korea, Iran and Italy...The rising number of cases in several countries is ominous...Confirmed cases worldwide pass 83,000; deaths top 2,800...Banks are rushing to limit business travel...Given that it started in China, two of those three countries were not at all....Scarier is that Indonesia -- which is a top destination for Chinese travelers....US diplomats are increasingly critical of the testing and preparations in the....So what if the next big outbreak is in Indonesia? Or what if it's South....If that happens, expect the market to sell those currencies...Market reactions are imperfect and that's an understandable response...At the same time, there is a certain point where the market comes to realize....It could be 5 countries or 25...Given that the market is already leaning towards a pandemic, the number will....Once the number of countries is "high enough", the trade will be....Will growth-sensitive currencies such commodity FX and and EM be hit the....Crude is down almost $20 from the January high and falling every day...What's the clearing price for crude when no one is driving or flying? There&....The lows could be harrowing and we're already past the point where many oil....In the next week or two, expect curbs on investment spending, followed by....That will at least take some production offline, but if there is no demand,....One thing about Powell's assuring statement earlier before the Friday....If Corona virus cases spread further, markets may reach a point where anything....Ultimately, it's ominous for the Canadian dollar...Expect the Bank of Canada to cut rates all the way to zero in a pandemic,....The way it's set up, there could be a series of cascading stops that take it....In the early part of a pandemic, the traditional safe haven currencies will....They will likely be joined by the euro as carry trades unwind...Part 2 of the market reaction: Who can cope....The next thing the market will look at is which countries can cope...This is where some of the commodity currencies could bottom out...Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Norway have relatively solid public....Moreover, the burden of care is going to fall on the government...That could mean enormous costs but it's evenly spread...Compare that to the mess of health insurance in the US...The costs are born by consumers and health insurers...The financial cost will cripple millions and bankrupt insurers...That creates some systemic risks...Moreover, a pandemic will destabilize and already-broken political system and....As that comes into focus, do you still want to own US dollars? After an initial....That would make for a classic blow-off top after a multi-year run...Ultimately, there's no 'great' currency to own....That's what makes gold so attractive...The volatility makes for a tougher trade but there's nothing technically....Central banks are going to cut to zero...There will be more QE...Deficits will explode...Politics will be more volatile...A pandemic may even take gold mines offline...Unless there is a decisive turn for the better in the virus, gold will continue....Do not confuse gold's recent decline resulting  from defensive margin....The shift can be instantaenous...nbsp;....I just saw Ashraf's Premium trade released moments ago...He presents fairly accurate/exact arguments for taking the trade...Let's see.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf on Bloomberg TV Part 1

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 17, 2016 8:43
    My interview earlier today on the US Treasury's publication of Saudi....The 2nd part of the interview regarding the yen, yields and stock indices will....Full interview.

  • Hot-Chart: Latest Clinton-Trump Spread

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 26, 2016 19:57
    In the latest chart on Clinton's lead over Trump in opinion polls, the....7 from 7...2, while stocks sustain fresh selling bout...More importantly, the relationship is increasingly clearer during a loss in..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Staying above 10%

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 4, 2020 16:49
    Staying above 10% Chart Indices are pushing higher (SPX and DOW +1...6% and 2...0% respectively) on a combination of Joe Biden's winning performance in....The latter cut rates to 1...5% to remain in par level with the US Fed funds rate...Chatter of a rate cut from the BoE and easing steps from the ECB are also....The following key levels continue to act as key resistance; 3045/55 on SPX and....USDJPY has yet to regain the 108...30s (200DMA)....nbsp; A new video for Premium susbcribers focuses on Wednesday's....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Ray Dalio on Various Topics

    by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 8, 2020 13:56
    Here are some thoughts by one of the world's most successful macro hedge....Full interview on Reddit.

  • Intraday Market Thought: ECB Pledges, BoC Punts

    by Adam Button | Mar 11, 2021 16:53
    ECB Pledges, BoC Punts Chart The ECB kept the size of its EUR 1...85 trillion pandemic bond buying program, ut pledged to step up government bond....USD resumed its selloff both the DOW and S&P hit new highs, while Nasdaq is....All eyes shift to the 30-year US govt bond auction for clues on foreign demand....Listen to Ashraf's detailed voice note on his Telegram Channel on about....Listen here...nbsp;....The BOC offered few hints about what's coming next while holding rates....There was some speculation they could dial down the bloated QE program but....There's no doubt those forecasts will be better as the BOC acknowledged....CAD initially slumped on no changes to QE but later rallied to finish near the....The risk is that's not enough of yields rise.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Industrial Metals Breaks Out

    by Adam Button | Apr 27, 2021 15:40
    Industrial Metals Breaks Out Chart If copper has a doctorate in economics then the prognosis is very good; it hit....Equally notable is Aussie's underperformance this month...US consumer confidence beat expectations in April...CHF and GBP are the only gainers vs USD in late European trading...Ashraf told the WhatsApp Broadcast Group, to reduce USD exposure ahead of....nbsp;....Copper has consolidated for the past eight weeks but broke out on Monday,....The climb comes on widespread speculation of looming supply shortages....If copper can rally another 8%, it will clear the 2010 high and rise into....There is little debate that the global economy will be strong over the next....Followed by questions about inflation...Monday's US durable goods report was soft with non-defense capital goods....9% compared to 1...8% expected...Despite that, overall orders have risen in 10 of the past 11 months and....nbsp;....Ultimately, it will be consumers and how willing they are to spend pent up..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Non-Farm Payrolls Are Pivotal

    by Adam Button | Jul 1, 2021 12:42
    Non-Farm Payrolls Are Pivotal Chart Few doubt that hiring will be high for the remainder of the year but the pace....ADP employment offered an early look at the state of the jobs market as the Fed....The US dollar was the top performer on Wednesday while the yen lagged...GBP weakness deepened in Europe after BoE's Bailey said policy makers must....Ahead of the OPEC meeting, US crude oil hit $75 for the 1st time since Oct 2018...Jobless claims are next, exp 388K from 411K...The early consensus on non-farm payrolls is 700K job in June...That should firm up after ADP employment rose 692K compared to 600K expected,....Whatever the employment number is on Friday, there is plenty of evidence that....The issue is that workers aren't applying for low paid jobs the way they....Part of the reason is that in much of the country, jobless benefits will....That's allowing workers to be picky in what work they will accept...In addition, families have an incentive to wait until after the summer when....That thinking puts the Fed on a slow path to tapering but it could change if....In particular, the wage indications could convince some FOMC members that....For the dollar, the trade is straightforward around USD/JPY...It's testing the April 2021 highs and not far off the 2020 peak at 112...23...That's followed by a series of annual highs that stretch up to 115...00...Dominos will begin to fall whenever the jobs growth materializes.

  • Intraday Market Thought: US Stimulus Faces Dems Barriers

    by Adam Button | Oct 21, 2021 14:30
    US Stimulus Faces Dems Barriers Chart Democratic leaders are hoping to have an agreement on a framework for a....JPY and CHF are the only currencies gaining vs USD as risk appetite pulls....US Philly dropped to a lower than expected 23...8 from 30...7, while jobless claims dropped to 290K from a revised 296K...Below is Ashraf's estimate for ETH/XAU...Ashraf has released the latest rebalancing of his crypto holdings to....nbsp;....Two reports on Wednesday underscored how difficult it will be for Democrats in....The first report said Sen Machin had mentioned to Biden the possibility of....The story cited anonymous sources but had enough detail to sound credible,....The second report said Sen Sinema had told lobbyists she wouldn't support....That would make paying for the package considerably harder and perhaps doom it...That report was thinner on details and there was no follow up as Sinema rarely....At this point, it's tough to say that a deal is a big factor in market....The reflation trade has sizzled in the past two weeks alongside commodities...There's a strong sense that the infrastructure portion of the deal will....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: 8 Levels, one Conclusion

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 26, 2023 21:09
    8 Levels, one Conclusion Chart Here is a snapshot from Friday's video, containing 1 graph, 8 levels, but....Start watching from 3:11 mins of the video to grasp the full details of the....nbsp;..
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