Searched for:
Results: 91 to 100 of 1,000
Results: 91 to 100 of 1,000
-
Intraday Market Thought: Break, Correct, Kiss, Rebound
by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 23, 2022 13:29Last week I reiterated to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group that indices will....The chart was part of the slides of my presentation in Amman last week...Whether indices extend their gains for a Santa Rally, depends on next week's....Next week's release of the Nov jobs report will be important but not as....Putting "what if" scenarios aside, we stick with the tactical....nbsp;.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Timing Gold's Intraday Reversal توقيت إنعكاسات الذهب
by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 27, 2023 17:07
Here is an example from today's trading, setting up our Whatsapp....Once the data were released 8:30 & 10:00 Eastern time (13:30 & 15:00....The WBG does not only rely on intramarket technicals to trade FX,....nbsp;..
-
Intraday Market Thought: What's a Cycle Completing Trade?
by Ashraf Laidi | May 19, 2023 18:50Before I mention complete-the-cycle trade, I need to address Powell &....Seeing Fed chair Powell speaking today on a panel next to Ben Bernanke struck....But even with the improved communication and policy tools (forward guidance....Here's why and how...Powell highlighted today the challenges of monetary policy in terms of tools and....Not to mention an unmovable debt ceiling in the face of staunch congressional....As far as policy signaling from today's speech, Powell re-affirmed the....The banking stress is far from over...Deposits flight may stabilize, but credit contraction is just starting...Add to that the jump in unemployment rate the Fed is forecasting from....40% to 4...5% in Q4 and you get an economic standstill...The latter ought to take care of the inflation part, but will it require....This week's release of stronger than expected gain in US retail sales,....nbsp;....This week's unusual combination of rising US dollar alongside equity....But that all changed about two hours ago among a breakdown in talks when....The resulting rally in gold and Japanese yen was amplified by Yellen and Powell....Gold surely needed Powell's caution as the Chairman shifts from inflation-....The barbarous relic is the only metal in the green this year, up 9% YTD...All energy commodities are down except for gasoline, while agricultural....Note that gold's 9% YTD gain is net of a 5% decline off its high...Keep the +9% and -5% in mind for my next post)....nbsp;....This week's XAUUSD close around 1980 was a crucial rebound off its 1950....Gold bulls, however, ought to beware of complacency regarding the debt-ceiling....nbsp; Keep an open mind with respect to fundamentals, cyclical shifts and....Debt Ceiling negotiations remain ongoing into next week...Both parties are fully aware that the deadline is June 1st, which means....We will hear a series of conflicting news as these can hit at any time of the....It can hit anytime...So BUCKLE UP ....Complete-the-Cycle Trade....One of the longest-ranging profitable trades (lasted for 2 months) I took in....Earlier today, I realized this same pair is revealing a similar cycle turn from....I will be sharing this trade idea with our WhatsApp Broadcast Group early next....Hint: It is a non-USD cross...nbsp;....nbsp;.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Ethereum & 477 Day Cycle
by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 6, 2023 12:19Is it time for Ethereum to shine? We've all seen Bitcoin dominance hitting....But take a look at ETH/BTC, possibly putting in a bottom, coinciding with a....And while BTC has already reached its inv H&S target of $35000, hitting....Does the cycle analysis imply more upside in ETH relative to BTC? See for....nbsp; By the way, that Bitcoin/Gold ratio is now fast approaching 18 (that.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Where to Hide
by Adam Button | Feb 28, 2020 19:33
As I write this, Fed Chair Powell releases a statement, assuring the Fed....Market had a late-session bounce...Ashraf said yesterday he expected some sort of action before the weekend...Powell's stmt is enough of an action to send markets in the green...The endless drip of new worrisome cases led market participants to unload....It's an understandable reaction to the extreme uncertainty from the....Yet, almost all wealth needs to be held in some currency or some place; we look....As I write this, Ashraf has just released a trade that is backed by 3....كيفية التداول إثر تصاعد المخاوف...On Thursday, WHO leader Tedros said we're at the decisive point in....The market has already decided it's much more likely to be a global pandemic...Let's assume it is...If so, it may be a global catastrophe unlike anything in generations...Let's set that aside for a moment and look at the financial/econ side and,....First, consider how the pandemic will spread...nbsp; Sooner or later, there will be another country with a coronavirus....Right now authorities are scrambling in South Korea, Iran and Italy...The rising number of cases in several countries is ominous...Confirmed cases worldwide pass 83,000; deaths top 2,800...Banks are rushing to limit business travel...Given that it started in China, two of those three countries were not at all....Scarier is that Indonesia -- which is a top destination for Chinese travelers....US diplomats are increasingly critical of the testing and preparations in the....So what if the next big outbreak is in Indonesia? Or what if it's South....If that happens, expect the market to sell those currencies...Market reactions are imperfect and that's an understandable response...At the same time, there is a certain point where the market comes to realize....It could be 5 countries or 25...Given that the market is already leaning towards a pandemic, the number will....Once the number of countries is "high enough", the trade will be....Will growth-sensitive currencies such commodity FX and and EM be hit the....Crude is down almost $20 from the January high and falling every day...What's the clearing price for crude when no one is driving or flying? There&....The lows could be harrowing and we're already past the point where many oil....In the next week or two, expect curbs on investment spending, followed by....That will at least take some production offline, but if there is no demand,....One thing about Powell's assuring statement earlier before the Friday....If Corona virus cases spread further, markets may reach a point where anything....Ultimately, it's ominous for the Canadian dollar...Expect the Bank of Canada to cut rates all the way to zero in a pandemic,....The way it's set up, there could be a series of cascading stops that take it....In the early part of a pandemic, the traditional safe haven currencies will....They will likely be joined by the euro as carry trades unwind...Part 2 of the market reaction: Who can cope....The next thing the market will look at is which countries can cope...This is where some of the commodity currencies could bottom out...Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Norway have relatively solid public....Moreover, the burden of care is going to fall on the government...That could mean enormous costs but it's evenly spread...Compare that to the mess of health insurance in the US...The costs are born by consumers and health insurers...The financial cost will cripple millions and bankrupt insurers...That creates some systemic risks...Moreover, a pandemic will destabilize and already-broken political system and....As that comes into focus, do you still want to own US dollars? After an initial....That would make for a classic blow-off top after a multi-year run...Ultimately, there's no 'great' currency to own....That's what makes gold so attractive...The volatility makes for a tougher trade but there's nothing technically....Central banks are going to cut to zero...There will be more QE...Deficits will explode...Politics will be more volatile...A pandemic may even take gold mines offline...Unless there is a decisive turn for the better in the virus, gold will continue....Do not confuse gold's recent decline resulting from defensive margin....The shift can be instantaenous...nbsp;....I just saw Ashraf's Premium trade released moments ago...He presents fairly accurate/exact arguments for taking the trade...Let's see.
-
Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf on Bloomberg TV Part 1
by Ashraf Laidi | May 17, 2016 8:43My interview earlier today on the US Treasury's publication of Saudi....The 2nd part of the interview regarding the yen, yields and stock indices will....Full interview. -
Hot-Chart: Latest Clinton-Trump Spread
by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 26, 2016 19:57In the latest chart on Clinton's lead over Trump in opinion polls, the....7 from 7...2, while stocks sustain fresh selling bout...More importantly, the relationship is increasingly clearer during a loss in.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Staying above 10%
by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 4, 2020 16:49
Indices are pushing higher (SPX and DOW +1...6% and 2...0% respectively) on a combination of Joe Biden's winning performance in....The latter cut rates to 1...5% to remain in par level with the US Fed funds rate...Chatter of a rate cut from the BoE and easing steps from the ECB are also....The following key levels continue to act as key resistance; 3045/55 on SPX and....USDJPY has yet to regain the 108...30s (200DMA)....nbsp; A new video for Premium susbcribers focuses on Wednesday's....nbsp;..
-
Intraday Market Thought: Ray Dalio on Various Topics
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 8, 2020 13:56Here are some thoughts by one of the world's most successful macro hedge....Full interview on Reddit. -
Intraday Market Thought: ECB Pledges, BoC Punts
by Adam Button | Mar 11, 2021 16:53
The ECB kept the size of its EUR 1...85 trillion pandemic bond buying program, ut pledged to step up government bond....USD resumed its selloff both the DOW and S&P hit new highs, while Nasdaq is....All eyes shift to the 30-year US govt bond auction for clues on foreign demand....Listen to Ashraf's detailed voice note on his Telegram Channel on about....Listen here...nbsp;....The BOC offered few hints about what's coming next while holding rates....There was some speculation they could dial down the bloated QE program but....There's no doubt those forecasts will be better as the BOC acknowledged....CAD initially slumped on no changes to QE but later rallied to finish near the....The risk is that's not enough of yields rise.
