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  • Intraday Market Thought: EURGBP Eyes 8920

    by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 17, 2025 19:31
    EURGBP Eyes 8920 Chart Today's weaker than expected UK CPI sharply boosted EURGBP and dragged down....Take a look below how EURGBP could hit 0...8920 in the nex few days...We also set up up our Whatsapp Bdcst Group for a EURUSD trade setup pre-ECB....هبوط حاد في الجنيه الإسترليني  مقابل الدولار الأمريكي واليورو بعد أن..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Everyone's Talking about this Risk

    by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 24, 2025 14:08
    Everyone's Talking about this Risk Chart Ask any economist about the likely dangers of 2026 and they will say....Before I cite the 3 reasons to worry about inflation, here is the chart of....nbsp; Next year is a mid-term election year, typically a volatile year...What's the likelihood we'll get a 4th straight positive year?....Now onto those 3 reasons...1) Economists (not markets) expect the Fed to cut between 75 bps and 100 bps....nbsp;....According to JP Morgan, "half of the worst drawdowns for traditional....quot; This means each time the Fed placed too much emphasis on stimulating....The result was negative for stocks and bonds, as was the case in 2022...Optimists are betting on the likelihood that slowing economic growth and rising....nbsp;....What's the likelihood that will happen? How will you position yourself?....But what if inflation rises? Will you stay in technology stocks? Will you hide....Out of the +25 stocks I shared with our Whatsapp Broadcast Group over the past....There's so much to share, but I'll spare you for now...nbsp;....Until the next newsletter, have a Merry Christmas and a resftul holiday...I plan to send a few more messages before the end of the year, but if you....nbsp;  ....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Sigbn up for Ashraf's ECB Webinar

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 19, 2015 14:35
    Ashra's webinar tomorrow at 20:30 London/GMT will focus on the euro &....nbsp; Registration..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf at XTB this afternoon

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 14, 2016 14:00
    This afternoon, Ashraf will hold an interactive presentation at XTB's....nbsp;....DIRECTIONS.

  • Intraday Market Thought: May Plots Delay, Fed Plots Lower Dots

    by Adam Button | Mar 20, 2019 12:40
    May Plots Delay, Fed Plots Lower Dots Chart Indices are finally coming off their lofty highs...Pivotal trade deals between the US & China along with the UK & EU are....CHF is the strongest currency of the day (our USDCHF short remains intact)....The Fed statement & dot plot forecast are at 14:00 New York, 18:00....Last night, a new Premium trade was issued (currently 40 pts in the green)....An additional trade will be issued ahead of the London close...Politics have been a more dominant force in G10 FX in the past two years than....A report on Tuesday said China was walking back some of its trade offers in....Markets reeled and the S&P 500 gave up its gains...At the same time, Lighthizer and Mnuchin revealed plans to travel China next....Enforcement remains a key hurdle and there's no doubt that the final....That's why it's worrisome that markets are pricing in a +90% chance of....That number might be right but the near-term risk is much more skewed toward....The story is flipped around Brexit with the market continuing to assign a low....That's understandable given the endless backstabbing in UK politics...The latest example is a report saying Conservative Euroskeptic MPs had been....That's something we've repeatedly warned about and it will come....Cable remains non-committal but it will undoubtedly make a large move once the....At the moment, neither the ERG nor the DUP wants to be the first to commit to....In the day ahead, USD risks rise with the Federal Reserve decision...It includes new forecasts, a dot plot and a press conference and is also....Look for a slight downgrade to growth in the statement from 'strong' to....The market buzz is for the Fed to move down to a only one more hike (either....If anything, the FOMC is likely to disappoint with a more-hawkish path as a....If so, the dollar could nudge higher, albeit the stakes are lower than most..

  • Hot-Chart: Trusting Inv H&S Formation Beyond the Weekend

    by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 2, 2019 20:21
    Some subscribers complained that last Tuesday's Premium trade (Aug 27)....The trade is currently about +300 pts in the green...We decided to risk sticking to the trade into the weekend, while cautioning in....As in all other Premium trades, there is technical and fundamental rationale..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Quadrifecta of Bottom Anniversary

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 24, 2022 18:14
    Quadrifecta of Bottom Anniversary Chart Two years to the day (minus one day) of the market bottom and strange things....Also strange because Mexico's president leaked a rate hike of his....Metals shot up on NATO's warning against possible nuclear accidents from....Indices dropped rapidly before regaining lost ground, leading to a unique....Any explanations on how/why?....Fans of the “why” could look at no further than breakevens, which....This is generally good news for metals and indices...As Gold/Silver ratio drops back to its 200-DMA, watch for a possible breakout....00...nbsp;....Meanwhile, both Ethereum and Bitcoin are doing nicely, but with ETH/BTC....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Theresa May Running the Clock

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 22, 2019 11:40
    Theresa May Running the Clock Chart Could PM Theresa May be running the clock to trigger a Brexit delay? A....More delay would increase chances of Parliament to push for a 2nd referendum....And with regards to the backstop (the main sticking point opposed by the DUP)....If the EU and May agree on such a deal, both the DUP and the Eurosceptic ERG....The Premium video highlighting last night's trade is posted below...On Friday, the Long DOW Premium trade hit its final target of 24630 from the....No Index trades are currently open...Stronger than expected UK earnings data (3...4% from 3...3% y/y) and a drop in Nov unemployment to 3...9% from 4...0% have also helped the pound...Germany's ZEW current situation index dropped to 27...6 in January from 45...3...US new home sales are due at 10:00 Eastern (15:00 GMT/London)....The ECB decision/press conference are due on Thursday.

  • Intraday Market Thought: DOW30's Intraday Inflection Points

    by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 11, 2020 19:18
    DOW30's Intraday Inflection Points Chart Many say our Premium trades are far too long term...But here's an example of what we did in the existing DOW30 Premium trade....Just for some background, DOW30 hit the low at 27190s a few nights ago and the....Today, we told our WhatsApp Broadcast Group at around 11 am London (ahead of....The chart below went out to the WBG 30 mins before the cash open...nbsp;Ultimately, the market did exactly that (peaked at 27830s and bottomed at....It does not matter whether the day's ranges were only 270 pts or 850 pts...What matters is that we alerted members the timing of the inflection points...nbsp; The other charts consists of the messages to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group...Don't forget Thursday's low occured around 8 pm London, similar to....It all looks easy after the fact...Next week will be tricky...Sample of today's messages to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group.

  • Intraday Market Thought: BreakEvens Cool off with Metals

    by Adam Button | Feb 11, 2021 19:20
    BreakEvens Cool off with Metals Chart Just as inflation searches rose on Google, nominal yields pushed up faster....Ashraf showed this in today's tweet below...He also warned the WhatsApp Broadcast Group late Wednesday on the next round....Recent inflation fears – including from Powell's former colleague....DOW30 and SPX attempt at holding support at 31240 and 3882 respectively...More levels below from Ashraf...Profi-taking ensues in indices ahead of a light trading week after Wednesday....Up first was the US CPI report and it showed core inflation flat in January....2% rise expected...Headline inflation as also below consensus at 1...4% y/y vs 1...5% expected...The market reaction showed that traders are focusing in on inflation...The dollar dropped across the board on the headlines, sending the commodity....Powell speech took criticisms head on, saying that estimating output gaps is a....nbsp; He also left little doubt where he stands on rates and tapering, saying....quot; The comments initially lifted stocks and weighed on Treasury yields....What was mildly concerning was that low inflation and dovish comments ultimately....If a market can't move higher on good news, it's vulnerable...There was also some tension built up when former NY Fed President Bill Dudley....Lets focus on the aforementioned levels for indices, while XAUUSD tries to hold....nbsp;..
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