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Results: 151 to 160 of 1,000
Results: 151 to 160 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: From Flation to Stag & Back
by Ashraf Laidi | May 11, 2022 19:36
Readers of this column went from vaccine "experts" to a Russia....So let's move to the more controversial subject of inflation...Whether it's transitory or not is not the question...Today's release of US April CPI showed a long-awaited pullback, printing....3% y/y from 8...5% in March-- the first slowdown since August...Here's how it may play out...The CPI pullback emerged largely from slowing energy prices and retreating....Since the former is expected to push back up due to rebounding gasoline....The challenge ahead for traders is to figure out when markets shift their....nbsp; The simultaneous accelerating decline in bond yields and tech stocks....Read on…....Gold rebounded $25 from 1832, while bond yields resumed the week's decline....Apple hit a new low for the year, Amazon broke its 6-year trendline and Netflix....The stocks-bonds damage to “SuperPortfolios” is officially....nbsp;....Recession rumblings were amplified today after CPI went from 8...5% to 8...3%....Imagine what noise the “stag” part will do when “flation”....3% to 8...0%....or below 8...0%....Let's not even look at the month-month figures...nbsp;....Don't forget the yield curve metric...Many think we need to see another round of inversion to spell recession...Wrong...Any continued steepening from current levels will mean the doves are coming....But if the 3-5 spread soon drops below zero from its current 0...06 and 2-10 nears 0...10 from 0...28, then it might take a bit longer...nbsp;....Currency developments also bear watching...German-US 10 yr spread has continued to stabilize alongside EURUSD, and EURGBP....Then you have gold, which is fighting to hold above its 200-DMA and August....nbsp;....We're not sure what will come first: A sub 5...0% inflation print in the US, or an official recession declaration from the....But here's my latest call: By the time US CPI drops near 6%, we'd see....Metals will get their next wave of vigour once markets realise consumer....nbsp;....nbsp; ..
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Intraday Market Thought: Nearing Total Yield Curve Inversion
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 12, 2022 15:43
As growth concerns clash with further tightening from the Fed, all “....Is the 10yr/3mth so important? How long does it take for the US to enter....The chart below shows that three of four yield curve measures have inverted...The 10yr/3mth has yet to fall below zero...But it's worth noting that since not all economic slowdowns are alike, the....nbsp;....Let's take the 2020 recession as an example-- which the US National Bureau....By summer 2019, three of the four measures shown in the chart went into....The duration of the inversion can also give an idea about the length of....nbsp;....More relevant and unique for today's dynamics is the contrast between short....One thing worth noting, which is weighing on commodities--including....This especially poses a drag on metals...I've written about this last month in this piece...As we head into tomorrow's release of the June CPI, it's worth focusing....nbsp;....Finally, if we look at the duration between the point of inversion in the....Does this mean an inversion of the 10yr/3mth this summer would imply the....nbsp;....About that Fed Pivot...Since "pivot" means a U-turn or reversal, then "Fed pivot"....e...rate cuts...But buyers of treasuries, yen and metals may have different ideas as to what....Yet, we should weigh the meaning in terms of market impact...I would consider a pivot to be an official pause from rate hikes, or, a....nbsp; Any of the last two could give considerable boost to treasuries, yen....Do not limit your thinking to only “rate cuts”....Finally, by the way these cycles are shortening, we could well enter a....nbsp;....Look at USDJPY vs US 10-year yields...What do you notice?..
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Intraday Market Thought: Narrating or Ignoring Reversals
by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 13, 2022 20:53
Beware of narratives aimed at explaining market reactions, but it's crucial....The sharp selloff in indices, metals and bonds lasted no more than 20 minutes,....CPI was indeed hot, but core goods prices were unchanged...What about the action in FX and metals? Any bear market rallies there?....Soaring from the abyss, but Friday always a test....Before we start with FX and metals, it's crucial remind of the implications....We saw last spring several instance when market closed up above 2% to return....Today's bounce in the S&P500 bears more significance as the index is....5% earlier in the futures session...Most impressively, the rally in the S&P500 emerged to rally of the abyss....It also managed to close above the 200-week MA of 3600...nbsp;....The other remaining test is Fridays...The last time major indices closed Friday in the green was on September 9th...Today's bullish engulfing candle certainly suggests a Friday up session...But next week is a whole different test...nbsp;....Yuan, DXY and Gold....USDCNH (often a better proxy for USD than the DX index) continued to fail at....20 resistance, coinciding with the twin highs from Aug 2019 and May 2020...The chart shows what happened to gold and DXY after each of those peaks...A similar story ensued at the double top of Dec 2016 and November 2018...nbsp;....Let's not forget how silver has embarked a on a 6-week uptrend of higher....nbsp; Combine this with the inflection points of CNH and XAUUSD and we bulls....China observers may also add president Xi Jinping would want a firm currency....What if Xi announces a spending-lend growth plan, powering global risk and....DXY shows a similar lower highs formation seen in US 10-year yields or....nbsp; But we've seen that pattern before—when DXY stabilizes at the....The more pertinent details are found below...USDJPY finally broke above its high from August 1998 high of 147...66 by one pip...The pair is up 22% so far this year, and up 44% from the 2021 lows...The Bank of Japan may have benefited from a shift in attention away from it....Whether the BoE's emergency gilt-buying program is a stark reminder of....nbsp;....But first, will the BoE stick to its decision to end the 13-day gilt-buying....Failure to reverse his tax cuts could turn the BoE into the BoJ...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Carney’s Arrival & FTSE-100 Technicals
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 2, 2013 18:05The latest on Mark Carney's likely policies, forward guidance and charting....Full analysis and charts.. -
Intraday Market Thought: GBPJPY, Carney & Abe’s Upper House
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 18, 2013 11:31Favouring EURJPY and GBPJPY ahead of Japan's Sunday Upper House elections....GBPJPY chart & analysis.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Bernanke’s USD Bounce & Soaring SHIBOR
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 21, 2013 11:58
The most important element to determining a Fed taper this year shall....If the projected decline in US unemployment does materialize, and the....0%, then will the Fed truly be able to reduce purchases to say, $70 bn or $65....So what if there is a complete seizing of China's credit markets? Rest of..
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Intraday Market Thought: Aussie’s Brief Reprieve Ahead of RBA
by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 1, 2013 19:04The damaged Aussie attempts some stabilization after a 14% decline over....Last week's IMF's report warning of capital flight out of the Aussie, the....See full article and chart.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Silver’s Downward Spiral vs Gold
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 24, 2013 21:29Following gold's two failed rallies of 12% and 6% in April and May respectively,....This may intensify silver damage, particularly as the Gold/Silver ratio....More charts & analysis here.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Fed’s Symmetric Rhetoric to Boost USD
by Ashraf Laidi | May 22, 2013 18:58The Fed's repetitive references to tapering asset purchases and increasing....As the economy cools off, the doves at the Fed are on a mission to restore a....Only this time, the yen's occasional gains during rare risk aversion become....continue here. -
Intraday Market Thought: OPEC Nears Deal
by Adam Button | May 22, 2017 23:02
Saudi Arabia's oil minister made a trip to Iraq Monday and shored up....On Monday, the kiwi was the top performer while the pound lagged...A speech from the Fed's Brainard later could be telling...There are 5 Premium trades currently open...Saudi's Al-Falih traveled to Iraq amidst reports that Baghdad, Oman and....His plan worked and late in the day, Iraqi officials said they were on board...nbsp;....What's puzzling is that Iraq has been one of the worst violators of the....Al-Falih was confident a nine-month deal is coming so that could move the....The wildcard remains Iran...Leaders there have been less-enthusiastic about cuts and the....On the topic of oil, the Fed's Kaplan talked about US share on Monday....He also hinted that breakeven points are coming down...A huge risk for 2018 is that US supply continues to climb and it forces OPEC to....On monetary policy, Kaplan's comments where characterized as....Indeed he said he still favors 2 more hikes this year but he repeatedly warned....At the moment, the Fed calendar until the June 3 blackout is quiet in terms of....That's likely to change as talks are added but at the moment, the only Fed....She's a dove but s also one of the first policymakers who tipped the March....If she drops any hawkish hints, it could send the dollar skyward.
